“It’s the economy, stupid!” – James Carville (1992) Americans vote their wallets. Whether they like the incumbent’s or the challenger’s policies … or hate them both, they’ll vote for the candidate they believe will impact most positively on their economic health. If America’s economy has been...
“No one enjoyed watching this past year's "The Big Bust." Inflation, crypto winter, bank crises. Wow! How will this movie end?” – The Lonely Realist The Big Boom, America’s favorite movie for more than a decade, ended its run more than a year ago. Its sequel,...
“The canaries have stopped singing.” – Cassandra “The canaries are nervously pacing their cages.” – The Lonely Realist Cassandra’s warnings in prior TLRs presaged today's widely-held conclusion that the global economy has passed a tipping point. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, First Republic and...
"SVB's excessive duration risk punched a government bailout ticket.” – The Lonely Realist The recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) spotlights fatal flaws in America's banking system. America's bankers (as well as its uninsured savers) are being rewarded rather than punished for mismanaging their risks,...
“Arming proxies to fight for America’s national interests is a sound military and political strategy.” – The Lonely Realist An often-overlooked proxy war heralded America’s emergence as global hegemon. The year was 1939 and the proxy warrior was the British Empire. Great Britain had lost much...