“Is the bull back?” – The Lonely Realist The bear warnings have been ominous. Virtually every seasoned analyst today is predicting a 2023 recession. One of America’s premier economists, A. Gary Shilling, goes further, saying that the recession already has started …, although it “won’t be...

“It’s the economy, stupid!” – James Carville (1992) Americans vote their wallets. Whether they like the incumbent’s or the challenger’s policies … or hate them both, they’ll vote for the candidate they believe will impact most positively on their economic health. If America’s economy has been...

“The canaries have stopped singing.” – Cassandra “The canaries are nervously pacing their cages.” – The Lonely Realist Cassandra’s warnings in prior TLRs presaged today's widely-held conclusion that the global economy has passed a tipping point. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, First Republic and...

"SVB's excessive duration risk punched a government bailout ticket.” – The Lonely Realist The recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) spotlights fatal flaws in America's banking system. America's bankers (as well as its uninsured savers) are being rewarded rather than punished for mismanaging their risks,...