“Highs and lows of April 2026...
“There is and will be further collateral damage from the Iran War.” – The Lonely Realist We are 7 weeks into the Iran War and markets have been soaring. even more so following comments made by President Trump forecasting an imminent end. Although the Strait of...
“Three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” – Carl von Clausewitz “Beware the ‘fog of war.’” – The Lonely Realist When asked in 1972 about the impact of the French Revolution, Chinese...
“Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.” – The Lonely Realist Today's TLR continues to analyze the potential economic fallout from the Iran War by assessing the consequences of two “what if” possibilities: What if (1) there will not be a negotiated settlement; and...
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – attributed to Mark Twain TLR earlier this month addressed three possible outcomes for the Iran War. The first is the one sought by America and its allies: America and Israel pulverize the Iranian Theocracy, the Iranian people take...
“Wars are messy, their consequences unpredictable.” – The Lonely Realist “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain.” – Jerome Powell (March 18, 2026) History teaches that wars are disruptive. They have unanticipated spillover effects, including by creating interest rate and...