The Lonely Realist is a bridge across the partisan gap, raising questions and making pointed observations about politics, economics, international relations and the markets. Its goal is to raise awareness and inspire thought on controversial issues that impact America and Americans, highlighting issues that should be, but rarely are, the focus of bipartisan discussion.
In seeking to promote dialogue, The Lonely Realist is not an advocate of conclusions or remedies. To the extent perceived biases leak into these pages, as they sometimes do, please ignore them. They are inadvertent missteps.
“Three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” – Carl von Clausewitz “Beware the ‘fog of war.’” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... When asked in...
“Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Today’s TLR continues to analyze the potential economic fallout from the Iran War by assessing the consequences of two “what if” possibilities: What if (1)...
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – attributed to Mark TwainLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR earlier this month addressed three possible outcomes for the Iran War. The first is the one sought by America and its allies: America and Israel...
“Wars are messy, their consequences unpredictable.” – The Lonely Realist “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain.” – Jerome Powell (March 18, 2026) Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... History teaches that wars are disruptive. They...
The Authoritarian’s PlaybookLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… As explained in prior TLRs, Turkey was once the shining example of a secular Islamic republic with an 80+-year history of Western-style democracy. It unfortunately has become the shining example of how to distort a
Coronanomics 101Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… Remember “too big to fail,” the rationale for the government’s bailout of banks and large corporations during the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis? Doing so was challenged as creating an unacceptable “moral hazard,” the danger that American
The U.S. increased the size of the target on its chest when it used its financial muscle to sanction and impose tariffs on countries that failed to comply with its post-WWII capitalist, democracy-centered, moralistic international order. As a consequence, the U.S. now resembles the deer in
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William (Bill) Natbony is The Lonely Realist, its author and originator. The opinions expressed in TLR are solely Bill’s opinions, have not been edited or reviewed, and do not reflect the views or opinions or any other person.
