The Lonely Realist is a bridge across the partisan gap, raising questions and making pointed observations about politics, economics, international relations and the markets. Its goal is to raise awareness and inspire thought on controversial issues that impact America and Americans, highlighting issues that should be, but rarely are, the focus of bipartisan discussion.
In seeking to promote dialogue, The Lonely Realist is not an advocate of conclusions or remedies. To the extent perceived biases leak into these pages, as they sometimes do, please ignore them. They are inadvertent missteps.
“Highs and lows of April 2026…, and thereafter.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR recently received a number of questions from readers. TLR’s responses follow: Dear Mr. Realist: I’ve been reading a range of commentators’...
“There is and will be further collateral damage from the Iran War.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... We are 7 weeks into the Iran War and markets have been soaring. even more so following comments made by President Trump...
“Three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” – Carl von Clausewitz “Beware the ‘fog of war.’” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... When asked in...
“Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Today’s TLR continues to analyze the potential economic fallout from the Iran War by assessing the consequences of two “what if” possibilities: What if (1)...
“That’s a quote from a reader. Government numbers are confusing. Can they be reconciled?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… The recent inflation data released by America’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was tame. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose
“Like a broken clock, permabears are right once every cycle.” – CassandraLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… Last week’s TLR provided a compilation of permabear pretexts that led one reader to highlight an interview from Moneywise in which Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer
“Is a crash inevitable? Is the only question ‘When?’” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… Ray Dalio recently wrote about the difficulties with “The U.S. Government’s Situation”: “[I]magine that you are running a big business called the U.S. government…. The
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William (Bill) Natbony is The Lonely Realist, its author and originator. The opinions expressed in TLR are solely Bill’s opinions, have not been edited or reviewed, and do not reflect the views or opinions or any other person.
