The Lonely Realist
Political & Financial Commentary

The Lonely Realist is a bridge across the partisan gap, raising questions and making pointed observations about politics, economics, international relations and the markets. Its goal is to raise awareness and inspire thought on controversial issues that impact America and Americans, highlighting issues that should be, but rarely are, the focus of bipartisan discussion.


In seeking to promote dialogue, The Lonely Realist is not an advocate of conclusions or remedies. To the extent perceived biases leak into these pages, as they sometimes do, please ignore them. They are inadvertent missteps. 

  • “Inflation is the dragon that the Federal Reserve must slay. At what cost?” – The Lonely Realist The anticipated recession has arrived. America has suffered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the classic definition of recession (as discussed here). If more evidence were needed,...

  • TLR‘s February 6, 2021 commentary was “Lessons from ‘The Bedford Incident.’” It was timely then and is even more so now. Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan and Ray Dalio’s “The US-China Tit-For-Tat Escalations Are Very Dangerous” highlight the enhanced risks. The Bedford Incident, a...

  • “With lawlessness condoned and the Rule of Law in tatters, American democracy is sliding downhill.” – The Lonely Realist Stability, social cohesion and national unity depend on the Rule of Law, a cornerstone of American democracy requiring that laws be fair, that they be understandable,...

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Red Storm Rising (with a bow to Tom Clancy)*

No, it’s not about a pending war with Russia. It’s about China’s current war – its Stealth War – against America. And no, it’s not simply a Trade War. The U.S. and the Soviet Union waged a Cold War for 45 years. It took focused

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Separate Realities

“We reject the certified results of the 2020 Presidential election, and we hold that acting President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was not legitimately elected by the people of the United States.” – Texas Republican Party, June 12, 2022[1] “The war on democracy instigated by [former

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The Autocrats’ Playbook*

The Autocrats’ Playbook You have to hand it to Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Although he didn’t write The Autocrats’ Playbook, he has most certainly – and successfully – followed it. Of course, you also have to hand it to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin,

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William (Bill) Natbony is The Lonely Realist, its author and originator. The opinions expressed in TLR are solely Bill’s opinions, have not been edited or reviewed, and do not reflect the views or opinions or any other person.