The Lonely Realist is a bridge across the partisan gap, raising questions and making pointed observations about politics, economics, international relations and the markets. Its goal is to raise awareness and inspire thought on controversial issues that impact America and Americans, highlighting issues that should be, but rarely are, the focus of bipartisan discussion.

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In seeking to promote dialogue, The Lonely Realist is not an advocate of conclusions or remedies. To the extent perceived biases leak into these pages, as they sometimes do, please ignore them. They are inadvertent missteps.

  • “The only difference between death and taxes is that death doesn’t get worse every time Congress meets.” – Will RogersLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The American government is running a $2 trillion annual deficit. Perfunctory efforts at budget cutting, whether by DOGE...

  • Consistent with two of TLR’s themes over the past 7 years, beginning with April 2019’s “Red Storm Rising” and June 2019’s “What is Money” and including the recent “What ‘America First’ Means to Allies and Enemies” and “Will the Dollar Surrender its Reserve Currency Crown?,”...

  • “It’s about ‘Fortress America’…, and much more.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Hypothesis: Both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping understand that the Thucydides Trap would represent a disastrous outcome for each country. President Trump appreciates that a Thucydides outcome...

  • “Because Strategy, Inc. is a significant investor in Bitcoin, Bitcoin’s price is being adversely affected by Strategy, Inc.’s price.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR wrote in December 2021 about “Bitcon,” using a label intended to highlight what at...

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More by TLR

The Warner Merger (and Heather Cox Richardson)

“Political PR ignores market analysis.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… M&A (mergers and acquisitions) is a challenging business in which brilliant businesspeople spend an inordinate amount of time in merger battles. Yet, a multi-decade analysis by The Economist concludes

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Author’s Note

Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… I’ve received a number of comments from readers confused by the cross-outs in The Lonely Realist. I did not intend them to be a source of confusion. I add them to inspire thought – that is, the

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An American Civil War?

“Ray Dalio has concluded that ‘The Failure of Kevin McCarthy is Another Step Toward Civil War.’ Is it?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates’ founder and author of The Changing World Order, believes that “we are

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William (Bill) Natbony is The Lonely Realist, its author and originator. The opinions expressed in TLR are solely Bill’s opinions, have not been edited or reviewed, and do not reflect the views or opinions or any other person.