The Lonely Realist is a bridge across the partisan gap, raising questions and making pointed observations about politics, economics, international relations and the markets. Its goal is to raise awareness and inspire thought on controversial issues that impact America and Americans, highlighting issues that should be, but rarely are, the focus of bipartisan discussion.
In seeking to promote dialogue, The Lonely Realist is not an advocate of conclusions or remedies. To the extent perceived biases leak into these pages, as they sometimes do, please ignore them. They are inadvertent missteps.
“Is a gerrymandered democracy good for America?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR first discussed gerrymandering 7 years ago. That commentary, “Elbridge Gerry’s Salamander,” is being republished today in light of last week’s ruling by a Virginia county judge declaring...
“Highs and lows of April 2026…, and thereafter.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR recently received a number of questions from readers. TLR’s responses follow: Dear Mr. Realist: I’ve been reading a range of commentators’...
“There is and will be further collateral damage from the Iran War.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... We are 7 weeks into the Iran War and markets have been soaring. even more so following comments made by President Trump...
“Three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” – Carl von Clausewitz “Beware the ‘fog of war.’” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... When asked in...
The obverse of “Rational Exuberance” is “Irrational Exuberance,” a phrase popularized in December 1996 by then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan when he warned investors that unjustified internet optimism had crept into stock market valuations. As a consequence, he warned, soaring valuation assumptions based on rosy
Managing The Economic Cycle (Part 1)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… An Economic Cycle has four stages. Simply stated, there’s (1) an expansion that reaches (2) a peak and results in (3) a contraction that reaches (4) a trough. Then the cycle repeats.
“The best way to predict the future is to study the present, and be a student of the past.” — The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player… In a letter to TLR in July, #Cassandra predicted a rosy economy for months to
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William (Bill) Natbony is The Lonely Realist, its author and originator. The opinions expressed in TLR are solely Bill’s opinions, have not been edited or reviewed, and do not reflect the views or opinions or any other person.
