“Highs and lows of April 2026...
“There is and will be further collateral damage from the Iran War.” – The Lonely Realist We are 7 weeks into the Iran War and markets have been soaring. even more so following comments made by President Trump forecasting an imminent end. Although the Strait of...
“Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.” – The Lonely Realist Today's TLR continues to analyze the potential economic fallout from the Iran War by assessing the consequences of two “what if” possibilities: What if (1) there will not be a negotiated settlement; and...
“Wars are messy, their consequences unpredictable.” – The Lonely Realist “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain.” – Jerome Powell (March 18, 2026) History teaches that wars are disruptive. They have unanticipated spillover effects, including by creating interest rate and...
“It’s about energy.” – The Lonely Realist Today’s TLR is a brief follow-up to this past Thursday’s “The Iran War”: One month ago, writing about whether the US Dollar might surrender its reserve currency status, TLR noted that America and China are in a competition for global...
“Gold is a rare, corrosion-resistant precious metal used for thousands of years as a currency, in jewelry and, more recently, in technology.” – The Lonely Realist Physical gold, as well as silver, is many things…, but it’s not an “investment asset.” Gold/silver are trading assets. Something...