Article Index
Recession Redux
“Cassandra is predicting a worsening recession.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR this week received the following letter from Cassandra (ED NOTE: a
Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player...10 May, 2025Due Process
“Should Executive Power be subject to judicial checks and balances?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR recently received the following question from a
03 May, 2025War
“Keeping America out of foreign wars is a priority for Trump 2.0.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... If the past is prologue, the foreign policy lesson ta
26 April, 2025Week in Review: April 25, 2025
Week in Review (April 19–25, 2025) The following Week in Review is provided for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Spee
25 April, 2025Going it Alone
“‘America First’ means ‘America Alone.’” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America First policy is anchored in a zero-sum world where “might makes right”
19 April, 2025TLR Week in Review: April 18, 2025
Welcome to this week’s edition of The Lonely Realist Week in Review. This week saw global markets whipsawed by escalating trade tensions and cautious central bank signals. A surge of new U.S. ta
18 April, 2025The Congressional Handmaiden
“Congress has ceded law-making authority to the President and no longer is functioning as an independent branch of government.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Pl
12 April, 2025TLR Week in Review: April 11, 2025
Week in Review (April 4–11, 2025) Welcome to this week’s edition of The Lonely Realist Week in Review. In one of the most tumultuous weeks in recent memory, global markets were whipsawed by escalating
11 April, 2025DEI
“Is American exceptionalism grounded in meritocratic capitalism or pluralistic diversity, equity and inclusion…, or both?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player.
05 April, 2025TLR Week in Review: April 4, 2025
Welcome to this week’s edition of The Lonely Realist Week in Review. The past week saw major turbulence in global markets, driven by an escalating U.S.-led trade war that rattled investor confidence.
04 April, 2025Dollar Dominance?
“De-dollarization happens slowly…, then all at once.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR was struck by Cassandra’s observation last week that because E
29 March, 2025TLR Week in Review: March 28, 2025
Welcome to this week’s edition of The Lonely Realist Week in Review. It was a tumultuous week defined by high-stakes power plays at home and abroad. From an unprecedented diplomatic spat between the U
28 March, 2025Recession?
“Has the Trump Administration engineered a recession?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... President Trump is waging all-out war on the Federal bureaucracy,
22 March, 2025TLR Week in Review: March 21, 2025
Sponsored research brought to you by Centennial Quantitative Welcome to this week’s edition of The Lonely Realist Week in Review. In a week marked by bold moves and high-stakes political theater, the
21 March, 2025Presidential Immunity
“Did the Supreme Court’s 2024 decision in Trump v. U.S. provide a ‘legal pass’ for Presidential criminal acts?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player
15 March, 2025TLR Week in Review: March 14, 2025
TLR Week in Review: March 14, 2025 Sponsored research brought to you by Centennial QuantitativeLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Welcome to this week’s edition of The Lonely
14 March, 2025It’s the Democrats’ Fault
“Does the Democratic Party Have a Future?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... James Carville, the Democratic Party’s uber-strategist, recently published an
08 March, 2025TLR Week in Review: March 7, 2025
TLR Week in Review: March 7, 2025 Sponsored research brought to you by Centennial QuantitativeLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Welcome to this week’s edition of The Lonely R
07 March, 2025Construing “Peace Through Strength”
“What will be the effect of abandoning Pax Americana?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Donald Trump is reorganizing the world order. If you thought that
01 March, 2025The Trump Revolution, Continued
“What action(s) by the Trump Administration might cross a red line?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Government actions can cross a line…, which is a tr
22 February, 2025The Confused State of Conservativism and Liberalism
“What do 21st Century Conservatives and Liberals actually believe in?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As TLR has noted, modern American political conse
15 February, 2025“You Say You Want a Revolution…”*
“Is duck-and-cover the safest course for the combination of Trump 2.0 and DeepSeek?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... For those who scoffed at the possib
08 February, 2025Peace Through Strength – the 21st Century Model
“America has a new-yet-old model of ‘Peace Through Strength.’” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Trump 1.0 foreign policy featured 1930s-style isolationis
01 February, 2025The Rule of Law
“Are there limits to Executive Power?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Three consecutive Presidents have excessively extended Executive Power and, as TL
25 January, 2025The First 100 Days
“Expect the unexpected.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Although there is no necessary significance to the first 100 days of a President’s term, the fi
18 January, 2025American Chrysalis
The Lonely Realist is pleased to present the following guest commentary. The views expressed below are those of the author and not those of TLR and the following commentary has not been edited or appr
13 January, 2025The Missing President
“Those who ran America for the past four years were the group of ‘counselors’ Joe Biden appointed in 2020, each of whom remained in a position-of-power throughout the Biden Presidency.” – The Lonely R
11 January, 2025The Best and Worst of 2025 – Part 2
“The 2025 ‘Word of the Year’ is ‘volatility’.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As highlighted in last week’s TLR, America is loo
04 January, 2025Comment to “What Will 2025 Bring – Part 1”
Dear Mr Realist:Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... I should probably await Part 2 before commenting, but I can’t help myself…. Count me as being firmly in the pessimistic camp
29 December, 2024What Will 2025 Bring – Part 1
“2024 was a volatile year. What are the domestic prospects for 2025?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The Optimists: Perhaps Cassandra will be right: “T
28 December, 2024Education in America
[TLR‘s technology support provider is retiring on December 31 and TLR needs a replacement. Recommendations are solicited.]Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “How should
21 December, 2024Cassandra and Permabearism
“Like a broken clock, permabears are right once every cycle.” – CassandraLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Last week’s TLR provided a compilation of permabear pretexts that l
14 December, 2024Permabear Defined
“The ‘Permabear interview’ is a challenge to Cassandra’s 2025 predictions.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... A year ago, Cassandra predicted that “the Fe
07 December, 2024Trumpian Disruptions
“Voters expect change…, and change they will get.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... There are any number of ways in which the incoming Trump Administrati
30 November, 2024Trumpian Tax Reform
“The only difference between death and taxes is that death doesn’t get worse every time Congress meets.” – Will Rogers “This time can be different.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenl
23 November, 2024Everything, Everywhere, All at Once – Part 3
“Life is a competition between predators and prey.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Whether in the animal kingdom or geopolitics, you’re either a predat
16 November, 2024Everything, Everywhere, All at Once – Part 2
“Last week it was immigration. This week, inflation.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Is inflation coming baaaaack? As TLR wrote last week, “everybody’s
09 November, 2024Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
“Are today’s perceptions reality?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Everybody’s distraught. No one likes the way things are going. Everyone w
02 November, 20242024 Election Results
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” – Niels BohrLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Which Candidate will grab the brass ring on November
26 October, 2024The Presidential Quest
“‘May you live in interesting times’ is a curse, and the next four years are likely to be the most interesting in human history.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative
19 October, 2024Mea Culpa
“Despite a focus on cycles, TLR did not foresee the return of antisemitism.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The very first TLR in February 2019 a
12 October, 2024Economic Risk
“Prudence dictates protecting against the downside…, especially now.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Cassandra recently confirmed prophesies she
05 October, 2024The Candidates’ Unserious Economic Policies
“Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything, deliver nothing.” – Napoleon Bonaparte “The two candidates are spoutin
28 September, 2024America’s Failed Education System
“The facts are clear. Solutions are more challenging.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America was once a “can do” nation. That’s no longer true. Americ
21 September, 2024Free Speech and Social Media
“Do difficult cases make bad law or do difficult laws make for bad cases?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What’s your definition of free speech? Do you
14 September, 2024Responding to Perplexed
“Perplexed’s ‘unprecedented challenges’ actually are ‘unprecedented opportunities.’” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Last week’s letter from Perplexed p
07 September, 2024Perplexed
“Don’t judge today’s political parties by their historical names.” Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR recently received the following missive: Dear TLR: I’m a Reagan Repub
31 August, 2024Draining the Washington Swamp
“Corruption starts at the top.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Washington, D.C. was built on a swamp…, which is not the reason why its denizens are cal
24 August, 2024America’s Economy
“Can America continue to experience robust economic growth and expanding stock market values?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Like many of its readers,
17 August, 2024The Supreme Court and America’s Constitution
“Don’t judge a book by its cover.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Every issue has at least three sides: your side; the opposite side; and what is argua
10 August, 2024Insider Trading by Members of Congress
“Members of Congress consistently trade on inside information. Shouldn’t that be banned?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Yes. What makes “insider tradi
03 August, 2024Mid-Year Musings
“Uncertainties abound.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The Economy After the Presidential debate on June 27th, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were seen as
27 July, 2024“The Economy, Stupid?”
“Will economic well-being matter in 2024?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... This past October, TLR predicted that the 2024 Presidential election would be
20 July, 2024Impeaching the President
“Democrats should resolve to remove President Biden from office.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... There is no need for TLR to review the events of the l
13 July, 2024Statism and the Supreme Court
“Be careful what you wish for.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The American right has been celebrating a series of recent Supreme Court rulings that na
06 July, 2024Journalism
“’News’ is a misnomer for today’s media reporting, where tribalist factions engage in a creativity-driven entertainment battle.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative P
29 June, 2024Ozymandias
“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone stand in the desert … and on the pedestal these words appear: ‘My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings; look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!’” – Percy Bysshe Sh
22 June, 2024The Rule of Law
“America’s judiciary is the Founders’ safety valve.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR first wrote about the Rule of Law in April 2019, emphasizing it
15 June, 2024Equality in America
“The American Experiment is a test of racial, religious, and ethnic integration. It’s about the meaning of ‘equality.’” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player...
08 June, 2024Gerrymandering
“Is a gerrymandered democracy good for America?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Gerrymandering is the redrawing of electoral maps in order to maintain
01 June, 2024Is it 1938 again?
“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark TwainLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Although Mark Twain was right that history seldom repeats itself, he was al
25 May, 2024Indexing Your Way to Investment Success
“Never bet against a stock index.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America’s stock markets have been on a tear for the past 15 years. The S&P 500 in
18 May, 2024As the Pendulum Swings
“Regulatory whipsawing is undermining American business.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Consistency in policy and law-making provides the optimal foun
11 May, 2024The Enemy of my Enemy is my Ally
“What others now are saying is what TLR warned about years ago.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... In a recent opinion piece in Bloomberg, noted historian
04 May, 2024Entitlements and Taxes
“Entitlement spending and tax cuts have fueled unaffordable deficits. To fund those deficits, America will have to reduce entitlements and increase taxes. Sorry!” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Eleve
27 April, 2024Middle East War
TLR earlier this week engaged in the following Q&A:Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Q: I understand, Mr. Realist, that you recently repeated that “Iran and Isr
20 April, 2024Extremist America
“Political extremists are dictating America’s agenda dialogue and, ultimately, government policy.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Congress is the beati
13 April, 2024Cassandra was (and is) right
“Fear and greed cut two ways.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The predictions Cassandra made two years ago were prescient. She said that the Fed’s succ
06 April, 2024Entropy
“Entropy is the second law of thermodynamics … and of geopolitics, religion, race, economics, climatology, children, etc.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player.
30 March, 2024Gaza
“Defining Zionism.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As Joe Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last year and reiterated on Late Night with Seth
23 March, 2024Gold and Bitcoin
“There’s something happening here, what it is ain’t exactly clear.” – Buffalo SpringfieldLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Both gold and Bitcoin are at dizzying highs. Why? I
16 March, 2024Presidential Retribution
“I am your warrior. I am your justice, and for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” – Donald Trump, February 5, 2024Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Playe
09 March, 2024Comment on “Regulatory Overload”
A TLR reader forwarded the following March 7 news item from Seeking Alpha:Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “The proposal had been pitched for years, but the SEC has fi
08 March, 2024Regulatory Overload
“If you want less efficient markets, over-regulate them.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Good regulations benefit the public. They maximize safety and
02 March, 2024Make America First
“America’s politicians need to place America’s interests first.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Americans do not want a Biden-Trump ticket. They want J
24 February, 2024America’s Economic Future
“Predictions are hard, especially about the future.” – Yogi BerraLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR recently presented a reality-perspective to Cassandra and received the
17 February, 2024Academic Tenure
“Educational excellence is the lifeblood of American Exceptionalism. It is incumbent on America’s educational institutions to ensure that excellence.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text t
10 February, 2024Isolationism
“Isolationism (noun): a foreign policy virus that sickens nations.” – The Lonely Realist “Google Sudetenland, 1938.” – Senator Angus King (I ME)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player
03 February, 2024Isolationism: A Modest Proposal*
“America should profit from its foreign entanglements.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America is well-positioned to profit from today’s international
27 January, 2024Entitlements
“America needs to cut entitlements.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America is sitting on a debt bomb. The date when it will detonate is unknown. The c
20 January, 2024Reformulating ‘The Election No One Wants’
“There is a clear path to a better 2024 election outcome.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Americans see their democracy threatened at one extreme by “s
13 January, 2024An American Education Update
“America’s education system is falling further behind.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As TLR has repeatedly maintained over the past 5 years (e.g., he
06 January, 2024The Year That Was
“Look back and learn.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The end of December provides the opportunity for perspective on TLR‘s posts during the expi
30 December, 20232024 Realities?
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George SantayanaLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Last week’s TLR featured an interview with Cassandra that
23 December, 2023Cassandra – The Year Ahead
“The best way to predict the future is to study the present, and be a student of the past.” — The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... In a letter to TLR in July,
16 December, 2023Peace Through Strength
“What does it mean to pursue ‘Peace Through Strength’?” – the Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Historians have celebrated the globalist foreign policy pu
09 December, 2023Supreme PR
“Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” – Lord Acton “Or does it?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... On November 13th, responding to publ
02 December, 2023An unAmerican Dream
“’From rags to riches’ has a unique American meaning.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The opportunity for money and power can drive ambition to incredi
25 November, 2023Latent vs. Blatant
“Is it better for hatred to be hidden or out-in-the-open?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Latent hatred is dangerous. Blatant hatred can be addressed …
18 November, 2023Yes, Virginia, America Truly is at War
“How many Americans understand the stakes?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR has been beating the drum for years that “America’s enemies are waging a
11 November, 2023A Geopolitical Fable?
“The clarity of double standards is striking.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Once upon a time there was a land shared by several tribes with a common
04 November, 2023Why This Time is Different
“Although this time indeed is different, it would be foolish to believe that the outcome will be different … wouldn’t it?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative P
27 October, 2023Immaculate Inflation
“Has the Federal Reserve engineered an inflation rate that will propel America’s economy ever upwards?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Why did America
20 October, 2023An American Civil War?
“Ray Dalio has concluded that ‘The Failure of Kevin McCarthy is Another Step Toward Civil War.’ Is it?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Ray Dalio, Bridg
15 October, 2023It’s the Economy, Stupid
“James Carville’s memorable 1992 campaign quip of ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ was prescient then and will be prescient again in 2024.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNat
07 October, 2023The War Against America
“America has been under attack for more than a decade.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR in its commentaries of March 27, 2019 and September 13, 2020
30 September, 2023Opening Pandora’s Box
“AI warnings have provided Americans with fresh Congressional theater.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The risks of AI were aired in simultaneous heari
23 September, 2023America’s Greatest Resource – Education
“People today go to school to prepare for a job. Previous generations went to school to prepare for life. Both are necessary.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Pla
16 September, 2023Regulating the Regulators
“To what extent should regulators have discretion to interpret America’s laws?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Ronald Reagan famously said, “If you wan
09 September, 2023R.I.P. Conservatism
“The foundations of Conservatism continue to crumble.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Being a Conservative in 2023 does not have the same meaning as be
02 September, 2023American Diversity
“America’s diverse citizenry anchors American democracy.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America is not like other countries. It is a melting pot where
26 August, 2023The Rural-Urban Divide
“Bidenomics will not restart Midwest factories or restore rust belt economies.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... There historically have been two America
19 August, 2023Government Big Tech
“Should Big Tech be under government control? No.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Everyone has grievances against Big Tech. Author Scott Galloway lists
12 August, 2023Defiled Disinflation
“Predictions of a ‘soft landing’ and ‘Immaculate Disinflation’ are misguided.” – The OracleLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Headlines trumpeting a “soft landing” for America
05 August, 2023The Reality of Insider Trading
“Insider trading opportunities abound. They’re available to everyone, but are most readily accessed by government employees.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Play
29 July, 2023The Post-Truth Era
“Alternate realities are thriving, fed by media disinformation.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The late 20th Century was The Golden Age of News. Large
22 July, 2023Immaculate Disinflation?
“A Soft Landing Indeed!” – CassandraLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR recently described the reasons why America may be in the midst of a soft economic landing, acknowled
15 July, 2023The Ukraine Imperative
“America’s national interest requires Ukraine to be a bipartisan bridge.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... After America’s calamitous withdrawal from Afg
08 July, 2023A Soft Landing?
“Greed is Good!” – Gordon GekkoLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Was Cassandra right? Interviewed by TLR on February 18th, Cassandra predicted that the Federal Reserve would
01 July, 2023Supremely Pragmatic
The June 10th TLR entitled “The Supremely Supreme Court” speculated about the possibility of chaotic consequences that would follow from Moore v. Harper should the Court endorse the “state legislature
28 June, 2023Conflict or Compromise?
“Your choice!” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Conflict or compromise is the choice facing Americans today. Oh, that also is the choice facing China and
24 June, 2023Are we Approaching a ‘Dalio Moment’?
“Not for some time.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What is a “Dalio Moment”? Ray Dalio is a leading proponent of cycle theory. His book, Princip
17 June, 2023The Supremely Supreme Court
“Hang on tight for a Supremely wild ride!” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... With Presidential power subject to increasing legislative and judicial constr
10 June, 2023Rendezvous with Destiny
“Eventually, every stalemate ends.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... In his speech at the 1936 Democratic National Convention, at the height of the 20th
03 June, 2023Progress
“The human condition is improving at an exponential rate.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The human condition has improved more over the last 100 years
27 May, 2023A Billionaire’s Tax
“Progressives want billionaires to pay their ‘fair share.’ What does that mean?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The highest income tax rate payable by
20 May, 2023Boom Times Ahead!
“Is the bull back?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The bear warnings have been ominous. Virtually every seasoned analyst today is predicting a 2023 rec
13 May, 2023Trump and Biden – Policy Brothers
“Although America is experiencing bitter partisanship, core policy execution will be the same whether the next President is named Trump or Biden.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Sp
06 May, 2023Trust
“Just when trust has become more important than ever …, it also has become scarcer than ever.” – Thomas Friedman (4/14/23)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... In a recent editor
29 April, 2023The End is Nigh?
“Homo Sapiens has invented many ways to destroy itself.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... How can the human race self-destruct? Let me count the ways! Th
22 April, 2023The Politics of Education
“By every measure and employing any number of standards, America’s education system is failing.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Shockingly, America ran
15 April, 2023The 2024 Presidential Election
“It’s the economy, stupid!” – James Carville (1992)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Americans vote their wallets. Whether they like the incumbent’s or the challenger’s polic
08 April, 2023An Economic Intermission
“No one enjoyed watching this past year’s “The Big Bust.” Inflation, crypto winter, bank crises. Wow! How will this movie end?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Spe
01 April, 2023Nationalizing America’s Debts
“The canaries have stopped singing.” – Cassandra “The canaries are nervously pacing their cages.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Cassandra’s warnings i
25 March, 2023Silicon Valley Bank
“SVB’s excessive duration risk punched a government bailout ticket.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The recent failure of Silicon Valley Ba
18 March, 2023Arsenal of Democracy
“Arming proxies to fight for America’s national interests is a sound military and political strategy.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... An often-overlook
11 March, 2023Trump vs. Biden
“America’s leading politicians continue to play to their populist minorities.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... A recent NBC news poll found that 71% of
04 March, 2023TLR’s Four-Year Anniversary!
“It may seem that America has experienced major changes over the last four years, but the reality is that the more things appear to have changed, the more they’ve stayed the same.” – The Lonely Realis
25 February, 2023Ask Cassandra
“Never invoke the gods unless you really want them to appear. It annoys them very much.” — Gilbert K. ChestertonLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR over t
18 February, 2023Fox News
“Is Fox News a news channel or an entertainment channel? That distinction could be determinative of whether Fox pays Dominion $1.6 billion in damages.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text
11 February, 2023Non-Competition
“Non-compete contracts suppress competition …, but they also protect valuable employer secrets. Which is more important for America?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNat
04 February, 2023Taxes, Taxes, Taxes
“America’s income tax system is broken …, and America’s government could care less.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... On January 8th, Congressman Earl (B
28 January, 2023The Contrasting Philosophies of State Governments
“What will the contest between State governments reveal?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The four largest American States by population are California,
21 January, 2023Free Speech
“When did it become acceptable to shout down “disruptive” speakers and ban books that discuss racism and other ‘controversial’ subjects?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech Audi
14 January, 2023All That Glitters – Addendum
The Bloomberg article linked here was published on Monday and mirrors the analysis and conclusions reached in Saturday’s TLR entitled All that Glitters. Bloomberg states in part that “A continge
09 January, 2023All That Glitters
“US Dollar hegemony is coming to an end.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Updating for events that have driven TLR themes over the last several years re
07 January, 2023That Was the Year that Was
“2022 was a year full of surprises.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... In geopolitics, 2022 was war’s comeback year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine en
31 December, 2022What Will 2023 Bring? – Part 2
“Cassandra last week predicted that 2023 would bring deglobalization, inflation, recession and further fragmentation and tribalization. There are other views.” — The Lonely RealistLoading the El
24 December, 2022What Will 2023 Bring?
“2023 will be unpredictable.” – The Lonely Realist “No.” – CassandraLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR readers last heard from Cassandra on October 1st when she pred
17 December, 2022Unpredictable
“Recent trends have no precedent. The world’s economies, governments and societies are in uncharted territory.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... A recurr
10 December, 2022The World According to TLR
“What do today’s revolutions portend?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As TLR first noted in August 2019, the world has experienced massive revolutions
03 December, 2022The Dawn of Fiscal Reality
“America’s treasury is bankrupt.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As Herb Stein, Chairman of the Counsel of Economic Advisers under Presidents Nixon and
26 November, 2022Crypto Ponzi
“A deflating crypto bubble is now hemorrhaging from Ponzi punctures.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... In July’s “Crypto Reality,” TLR noted that althoug
19 November, 2022“The Changing World Order”
“Although many pessimists hear echoes of the 1930s …, 2022 is not 1939.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... A TLR theme has been to highlight parallels bet
12 November, 2022The Hypersonic Supreme Court
“Buckle your seat belt. Change has come to American government.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... With Presidential power subject to increasing legislati
05 November, 2022Socialism and De-Risking
“The American brand of capitalism has been replaced by an American brand of socialism.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR is a huge fan of laissez-fai
29 October, 2022The Pause that Refreshes – a Midterm Surprise?
“We’ve had enough of Quantitative Tightening! It’s time for a pause.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR last year ventured that Joe Biden and Jay Powe
22 October, 2022The Roy Cohn Defense
“Donald Trump is a master of The Roy Cohn Defense. Will it continue to work for him?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... SPOILER ALERT: That would be a goo
08 October, 2022Cassandra Economics
“Will the 2020s be defined by recession, rising unemployment, crashing stock markets and instability?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Cassandra believe
01 October, 2022The Ukraine Catastrophe
Question: “What will Putin do next?” Answer: “Putin will continue to escalate. He has superior resources and options.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... U
24 September, 2022Letters to the Editor: 9/11/22
A letter to the editor in response to this week’s The Lonely Realist: Yes we need migrant workers but, of course, they need to be vetted. And a real immigration policy needs to be in place. As o
21 September, 2022The Southern Border Invasion
“Will the Biden Administration’s border policy replace Americans with immigrants?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... A majority of Americans view the infl
17 September, 2022King Dollar!
“The Federal Reserve’s determination to reduce inflation by raising interest rates will make for an ever-stronger Dollar. A strong Dollar is good for America.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenla
10 September, 2022Letters to the Editor: 9/4/22
A letter to the editor in response to this week’s The Lonely Realist: My undergraduate major was “Government” and my specialty was American defense policy – which, at heart, amounted to game the
06 September, 2022Secrets Exposed by Affidavit: What it Means for America
“Is Donald Trump a Compromiser of American Secrets? Criminal implications be damned! Fallout from the Mar-a-Lago Papers will weaken America and strengthen its enemies.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the
03 September, 2022Donald Trump: Victim or Traitor?
“‘It Must Be Trump,’ the DOJ affidavit, treason and classified documents.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “It Must Be TrumpR
27 August, 2022What You Need to Know About the Looming Recession
The recession may be deepening. Inflation has been and continues to be underreported, due to the underestimation of the Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) component of CPI. OER, which is 24% of CPI, has be
26 August, 2022Biden and Trump are a joke. America deserves better.
The current field of potential presidential candidates for the 2024 election is less than ideal. Only a minority of Americans support the current front runners, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Neither of
25 August, 2022The Only Thing That’s Certain is Uncertainty
In today’s economy, there are a lot of challenges that people are facing. There is a lot of government and private debt, deficits, and dislocations, which can be difficult to understand and reco
23 August, 2022Making America Great Again
America became the most successful nation on Earth because it built a great education system. This system was good from elementary school through high school and into college. Postgraduate education w
21 August, 2022Illiterate America
“By every measure and employing any number of standards, America’s education system is failing. The consequences for America will be severe.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech
20 August, 2022A Deepening Recession?
“Inflation is the dragon that the Federal Reserve must slay. At what cost?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The anticipated recession has arrived. Ameri
13 August, 2022“The Bedford Incident” and Taiwan
TLR‘s February 6, 2021 commentary was “Lessons from ‘The Bedford Incident.’” It was timely then and is even more so now. Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan and R
08 August, 2022Lawlessness in America
“With lawlessness condoned and the Rule of Law in tatters, American democracy is sliding downhill.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Stability, social co
06 August, 2022The Fed Rate Hike & GDP: A New Great Recession?
“This week’s Fed Rate Hike and negative GDP report provide recession grist for would-be oracles, but don’t bet-the-farm on alleged experts’ conjectures. No one can predict the future.” – The Lonely Re
29 July, 20222024 Election Preview
“Presidential choices for the 2024 Election are … unappealing.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... How do Americans feel about “Four More Years!”? Not good
23 July, 2022Supreme Reality
“Today’s Supreme Court is the most influential branch of America’s government … and also its most active.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America
16 July, 2022Crypto Reality
“Crypto was devised to be a transparent, digitized, de-risked, de-centralized financial-technological invention that would overcome the inherent problems of traditional finance. It’s instead opaque, p
09 July, 2022Separate Realities
“We reject the certified results of the 2020 Presidential election, and we hold that acting President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was not legitimately elected by the people of the United States.&
02 July, 2022If something cannot go on forever…
“How long is forever?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Stein’s Law—named for economist Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under
25 June, 2022Everything is Political?
“By politicizing morals and ethics, America has done an outstanding job of tearing itself apart, which has fulfilled extremist goals as well as the goals of America’s enemies.” – The Lonely Real
18 June, 2022Interview with a Bureaucrat
“Bureaucratic governments can’t subsist by feeding on the vital essence of the public.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Have you watched The Big C
11 June, 2022America’s Economic Future
“America can’t be experiencing inflation, stagflation, recession, deflation and modest growth all at the same time. Which will predominate depends on who you ask.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elev
04 June, 2022The Incredible Shrinking U.S. Government?
“Could a decision by the Fifth Circuit radically shrink government?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Yes. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orle
28 May, 2022Democracy Defined?
“There are three different definitions of ‘democracy’: one for those on the far right; another for those on the far left; and a third for everyone else.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Tex
21 May, 2022The Dizzying Stock Market II
In a letter to TLR on June 27, 2021, the “Delphic Oracle” offered predictions about America’s economy, projecting ongoing asset inflation due to the Fed continuing its QE money-print
16 May, 2022The Dizzying Stock Market
“Buy the dip! Sell the rally!” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The markets are wacko! What are they going to do next? Will stocks again start climbing t
14 May, 2022Bigger Badder Government
“Too much government means less individual autonomy and freedom.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “Government is not the solution to our problem, govern
07 May, 2022The Bees and the Birds
“Rachel Carson published ‘Silent Spring’ in 1962. Sixty years later, damage from declining species’ populations, and most visibly bees and birds, has greatly accelerated.” – The Lonely RealistLo
30 April, 2022De-Globalization and De-Dollarization
“The enormous amount of debt and money creation over the past 13 years has changed the nature, and also reduced the value, of debt and ‘money’.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs
22 April, 2022Don’t Say Gay
“Legislation used to be about making better laws. Law-making today too-often is partisan theater.” –The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... You’ve no doubt read a
16 April, 2022Regulatory Overload
“If you want more of something, subsidize it. If you want less, tax it.” –Ronald Reagan “And if you want less efficient markets, over-regulate them.” –The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to
09 April, 2022The Face of Freedom and Democracy
“Today, the global face of freedom and democracy is Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine. That face used to be America’s President.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech A
02 April, 2022That Great Sucking Sound
“The West needs to adopt a 21st Century strategy to address the economic, political and military fallout from the Ukrainian War.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative
26 March, 2022A Tipping Point
“Decades of poorly-executed American foreign policy, excessive money-printing, and partisan infighting have taken America – and the world – to a tipping point.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenl
19 March, 2022Bad News for America
TLR recently received the following email. It arrived under the heading “Some good news for America”:Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The heading misstates an ad
14 March, 2022Fallout!
“The West has responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by detonating its nuclear currencies. Fallout will include inflation, geopolitical instability and more.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Eleven
12 March, 2022The Nuclear Dollar
“America has responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by detonating the Nuclear Dollar, a weapon of economic devastation. Wielding it creates long-term consequences for America.” – The Lonely Realist
05 March, 2022The Path to Immortality
“A surefire path to immortality is conquest!” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Anyone who has studied history knows the names of Alexander the Great, Jul
26 February, 2022One Regulator to Rule Them All
“One regulator to rule them all; One regulator to find them; One regular to bring them all; And with enuf freakin red-tape bind them.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNa
19 February, 2022The Failure of American Foreign Policy – Re-posted*
TLR published the following commentary on September 30, 2019. It – and earlier posts such as Axis of the Sanctioned and later ones like Foreign Policy Lessons Forgotten – are once again timely in ligh
13 February, 2022Whoopi, Joe and Tucker
“When Free Speech is propaganda.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Two weeks ago, Whoopi Goldberg on the TV talk show The View said that the Holocaust wa
12 February, 2022COVID Data
“COVID has trashed America’s Big Blue Cities. It soon will disrupt America’s Great Middle. Big Data tells the tale.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative P
05 February, 2022R.I.P. TINA?
“Is America’s love affair with TINA finally coming to an end?” –The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As TLR has highlighted repeatedly over the past three year
29 January, 2022Executive Power
“Leaders worldwide are centralizing power. That should not be allowed to happen in the U.S. where the Constitution provides for the devolution of power to State and local governments.” – The Lonely Re
22 January, 2022Why It’s Called “The Past”
“Americans are looking forward to a post-COVID ‘return to normalcy.’ If by normalcy, people expect the world to rewind to a fondly-remembered prior era, they’ve missed the turn-of-history’s-page. The
15 January, 2022Bridging the COVID Divide*
“Sufficient data currently exists to support a bipartisan national COVID policy. Fractured America now has a path forward to address COVID’s harsh realities.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlab
08 January, 2022The Year That Was…
“2021 became a temporary resting place for debris accumulated as a result of more than a decade of American economic, political and foreign policy errors. Wading through the debris provides insights i
01 January, 2022A Tribute To My Brother Mike
My big brother passed away on Saturday. He had a heart attack. It was a shock. It is a shock. It will always be a shock. I was devastated. I am devastated. I will always be devastated.Loading the Elev
27 December, 2021The 21st Century’s Biggest Loser?
“If you haven’t been paying attention to America’s conflicts with China, Russia, and Iran, START DOING SO NOW! Those three nations are waging a coordinated multi-front war against America and, unless
25 December, 2021Buying Bitcon
“If you believe in conspiracy theories or disbelieve in conspiracies, or if you invest in gold as a diversification hedge or if you hate gold, or if you fear for the future, fear inflation, fear defla
18 December, 2021Will CA Now Ban Guns?
As TLR observed in Aborting Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court’s decision permitting Texas courts to enforce SB 8 (which bans abortions after the 6th week of pregnancy and outsources enforcement to privat
13 December, 2021The Battle Between Capital and Labor
“Although capital historically has dominated labor in America, labor began reasserting itself in the 21st Century when the Trump Administration encouraged onshoring and erected tariff barriers, a tren
11 December, 2021America’s Identity Crisis
“America is a nation divided by economic, cultural, racial and social fissures. Americans agree that this divisiveness is self-destructive. There’s more they can agree on.” – The Lonely Re
04 December, 2021Joe Biden and Jay Powell
“Self-interest has made Joe Biden and Jay Powell best buds. Joe has agreed to reappoint Jay. Jay, in turn, has reassured Joe that America can (and will!) achieve low inflation and ever-higher equity p
27 November, 2021Insider Trading and Elon Musk
“If insider trading is illegal, how come so many CEOs (as well as members of Congress and Federal Reserve Governors) get away with it?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to S
20 November, 2021Let’s End American Obsolescence
“America is a country with cutting-edge 20th Century infrastructure, cutting-edge 20th Century business practices and cutting-edge 20th Century government policies. Unfortunately, this is the 21st Cen
13 November, 2021The New Normal
“No one works anymore. There’s no need to have a regular job and there are too many employment opportunities to choose from anyway.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech Aud
06 November, 2021The Case for Deflation?
“Prices are rising. The supply chain is broken. The economy is slowing. What’s next?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... So much economic noise! So much ch
30 October, 2021America’s Minsky Moment?
“Americans are restless and confused, searching for direction, empty and aching without quite understanding why.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Simon
23 October, 2021Inflation Update
Readers will recall commentaries over the past two years in which TLR expressed the view that the Federal Reserve will face political and economic realities that prevent it from adequately responding
20 October, 2021Biden’s Tax Proposals
“Although the Biden Administration’s Build Back Better tax proposals would reduce income inequality, they would do so at a cost that includes increased complexity … yet again. They could be targeted f
16 October, 2021The Imperial Presidency
“America’s most recent Presidents have stretched their Constitutionally-granted powers to an extreme. Unless Congress acts to end the power-grab, America may be breeding a monarchy.” –The Lonely Reali
09 October, 2021Immigration Makes America Great
“America needs immigrants. American businesses are short of workers, particularly in construction, farming, leisure and the gig economy, and America no longer is a magnet for the most highly-educated.
02 October, 2021Is America About to Break-up with TINA?
“With stocks priced to perfection, America’s love affair with equities may be waning. Are there attractive alternatives?” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player..
25 September, 2021Games People Play
“Massive monetary and fiscal stimuli have fueled brash speculation – gambling – but little economic growth.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The interne
18 September, 2021Aborting Roe v. Wade
“The Supreme Court once focused on nation-building by prioritizing Federalism over States Rights. Its efforts were highlighted in Roe v. Wade. No longer. States Rights now rule.” -The Lonely RealistLo
11 September, 2021Black Swan Wings
“The wings of black swans darken today’s sky.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Black swan events are unpredictable surprises that portend unforeseeable
04 September, 2021Mask Mandates: Ron DeSantis is Wrong?
“Governments in America derive their power from the people they represent. Powers not explicitly delegated are retained.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player..
28 August, 2021The Reddit Wolves of Wall Street
“Reddit users have organized themselves into ‘wolf pack’ communities where individual investors act together to hunt hedge funds, activist investors, and short sellers.” – The
21 August, 2021Foreign Policy Lessons Forgotten
“Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.” –Winton Churchill (paraphrasing George Santayana)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As TLR wrote two years a
16 August, 2021Ted Cruz is Right!
“The time has come! The time is now! JUST GO, GO, GO! TERM LIMITS ARE HOW!” –The Lonely SeussLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Ted Cruz is the lead sponsor of a p
14 August, 2021Inflation: Just a Blip?
“Prices of homes, rental units, employees, healthcare, autos, food, staples, transportation, commodities, etc., are rising. Is there anything that isn’t politicized in 21st Century America?” – T
08 August, 2021Walter Cronkite is Dead
“Relative realities are thriving, fed by disinformation.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The late 20th Century was The Golden Age of News. Larger-than-
01 August, 2021Icebergs and Eisenhower
“America is facing a disproportionate number of existential threats. They can’t be successfully navigated without common agreement that they exist… and that they must be confronted.” – The Lonel
25 July, 2021SPECIAL REPORT: COVID Realities
“Health in America, like almost everything else, has become politicized.” Instead of being a "United" States of the vaccinated and COVID-recovered, America is suffering through a new wave of infection
22 July, 2021Heating Up Cold War II
“Nationalism can build a bridge across the partisan divide.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... China has a plan, a well-thought-out plan, for absorbing Ta
18 July, 2021Facebook’s Antitrust Problem
The best way for America’s government to address illegality and provide an effective defense against predatory practices is by enacting laws that provide for Americans’ protection. Protecting its cit
11 July, 2021Regulatory Rigor Mortis: Raising the Dead
“Overlapping laws and regulations hurt America. Simplification and reconciliation should be a bipartisan objective.” – The Lonely RealistLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative
04 July, 2021Boiling the Inflation Frog
“Human beings who can predict tomorrow’s stock market action quickly become wealthy. They are considered geniuses. If they could accurately predict the weather one week out, they’d be considered cla
27 June, 2021Infrastructure’s Gordian Knot
The Gordian Knot is a legend about Alexander the Great in which his cutting the Knot became a metaphor for solving an intractable problem. Alexander reputedly accomplished the seemingly impossible ch
20 June, 2021Fractured America
TLR considered alternate titles for today’s commentary and stuck with “Fractured America” because it conveys the shocking reality that American society is coming has come apart. It has not simply bif
13 June, 2021Cassandra Talks Economics
The Lonely Realist is now on Twitter here!Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The last time TLR talked with Cassandra about economics was in September 2020 when she correctly c
06 June, 2021Fake it Until You Make It
“Faking it ’til you make it” is a Silicon Valley maxim. Unfortunately, “faking it” at times means committing fraud, though determining what is “fraud” is complicated … especia
30 May, 2021Musings on Democracy
TLR continues to ponder the question of what makes democracy so attractive and so enduring … and, more recently, so unstable (having discussed “The Widening Partisan Divide” here, America’s “Degenerat
23 May, 2021America’s Love Affair with TINA Continues
As TLR wrote last year (here), since March 2009 investors have had no better alternative than to own equities …, which is why the acronym, TINA – There Is No Alternative –, has been applied to owning
16 May, 2021The Global Warming Conflict
The Earth’s climate is changing …, but that’s not news. The Earth’s climate is constantly changing.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The most recent changes mean a warming E
09 May, 2021Intentional Consequences
The enactment by the Biden Administration of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP) was a victory for labor over capitalists capital, one that many Americans believe created unintentional conseq
02 May, 2021America’s Broken Constitution
The 13 American Colonies determined more than 230 years ago the kind of democracy they wanted for themselves and their children. Their Democratic Experiment worked for more than two centuries. It’s
25 April, 2021The Digitization of Money
Who Uses Cash Anymore?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... TLR doesn’t. Do you? Covid-19 has accelerated change the creation and evolution of paper money alternatives … or, ins
18 April, 2021Axis of the Sanctioned 2021
The U.S. increased the size of the target on its chest when it used its financial muscle to sanction and impose tariffs on countries that failed to comply with its post-WWII capitalist, democracy-cent
11 April, 2021What’s Wrong with America
What’s wrong with 21st Century America?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... In a single word, leadership … or, more precisely, the lack of it. America has lacked effective, cons
04 April, 2021Wake-up or Deny, that is the Choice
Americans have awakened. They’ve become “woke,” a term deriving its meaning from African American slang. “Woke” came into the English language more than a decade ago when “stay woke” referred to the
28 March, 2021Bubbles? What Bubbles?
Don’t worry about how sky-high stock market prices are today. Or Bitcoin – its price is now $59,000 (having appreciated 500% over the past 12 months). Or the price of GameStop (from $4 to $483 in 6
21 March, 2021Soaring Dragon, Resting Eagle
Today’s TLR is about the Soaring Dragon, its wings shading the global landscape … and the Resting Eagle, seated in its nest with its wings tucked neatly at its sides.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Spe
14 March, 2021Hooray – It’s Tax Return Season … Again!
How often have you heard that cheer? Never, right? For good reason.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... How many mothers have you heard wishing that their children grow up to
07 March, 2021Education – Another Inconvenient Truth
“It’s your kids, Marty. Something’s gotta be done about your kids!” – Doc Brown, Back to the Future, Part II.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America has been t
28 February, 2021Conscription – An Inconvenient Truth
There are a host of reasons why America should reinstitute mandatory military service … or, more realistically given the public’s resistance to the draft, adopt mandatory national service. A specific
21 February, 2021A Postscript to “Lessons from ‘The Bedford Incident'”
A remarkably timely economic echo of “Lessons from ‘The Bedford Incident’” entitled “Taiwan’s Semiconductor Sector on the Front Line of Great Power Rivalry,” published yesterday, can be found at https
17 February, 2021Lessons from “The Bedford Incident”
The Bedford Incident, a 1962 novel and 1965 movie, is a parable of great-power risk, required reading/viewing for 21st Century political leaders.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Playe
14 February, 2021The Madness of Crowds[1]
Social media is the most wonderful delusion invention of the 21st Century. From a friend:Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “I was shopping at the mall just before Christmas
07 February, 2021Degenerative Democracy
Today’s TLR is about democracy. It’s not about politics. It’s also not about the upcoming impeachment trial of former President Trump. Although both politics and impeachment are a part of America’s
31 January, 2021A Capitalist Manifesto
Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone. – John Maynard KeynesLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech Au
24 January, 2021Constitutional Free Speech
The First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution says that America’s government cannot limit peoples’ right to speak freely. The government cannot censor speech (other than criminal speech) and it cannot
17 January, 2021America’s Economic Perpetual Motion Machine
America’s economy is running on a belief in perpetual motion …, the reason being that the U.S. government is printing piles oodles of Dollars with the expressed intention of continuing to do so indefi
10 January, 2021Revisiting the Themes of 2020
TLR’s most important narratives center on bridging America’s divisions …, and 2020 provided plenty of grist for that mill.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Progress in any cu
03 January, 2021Do you have an Interest in Interest?
You should! Everyone today should have an intense interest in interest … and for a simple reason: America’s, and the world’s, economy hinges on the rate of interest that debtors –at all credit
27 December, 2020The Future Begins Now
“May you live in interesting times” is a warning signifying danger, uncertainty and …, yes, opportunity. We most definitely live today in an interesting time. This time, its events and its personali
20 December, 2020Cultism – The Media Are The Message
America no longer is a Nation of Immigrants as JFK wrote more than 60 years ago. It’s instead a Nation of Cults.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... A cult is a group defined b
13 December, 2020A 2020 Holiday Wish
TLR has prepared a Holiday Wish List that includes a request for political functionality that one hopes can be delivered this Holiday Season to provide joy – the kind that comes from economic and phys
06 December, 2020Nearing the Edge of a Fiscal Cliff?
The term “fiscal cliff” means different things at different times in different economic environments. The single definitional consequence upon which there is universal agreement, however, is that it’
29 November, 2020Pick a Party
A political party, that is.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The U.S. has only two …, right? Although … maybe not …. There are currently two nationally-organized political p
22 November, 2020Rational Exuberance
The obverse of “Rational Exuberance” is “Irrational Exuberance,” a phrase popularized in December 1996 by then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan when he warned investors that unjustified interne
15 November, 2020The Parties’ Future
Assume that the media is correct and Joe Biden has won America’s Presidential election and will be inaugurated as America’s 46th President on January 20th. If so, he would owe his relatively narrow v
08 November, 2020The Widening Partisan Divide
TLR’s mission is to bridge the growing partisan divide by inspiring discussion and, hopefully, a dollop of bipartisanship that leads to a degree of resolution. The goal is to raise awareness and stim
01 November, 2020America’s Media Watchdogs
The First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution precludes the government from abridging Americans’ right to speak freely. By guaranteeing a broadly protected – and uniquely American – freedom of speech,
25 October, 2020America’s Love Affair with TINA
I first fell in love with TINA in 2009. It was early Spring and I’d been hurt, pretty badly, in 2008. That had followed the break-up of a serious relationship with Value that had topped out in Octob
18 October, 2020Whither Roe v. Wade?
The Supreme Court’s 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade has divided Americans for almost half a century. Politically, it created a gulf between anti-abortion, socially-conservative Republicans Americans and
11 October, 2020Predicting the Outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election
Wait for it. You won’t have to read very far.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The Cassandra Syndrome is a label applied to a person whose valid warnings are disbelieved by
03 October, 2020A Postscript
A number of readers have asked for emailed copies of prior TLRs that are referenced in more recent commentaries or relate to subjects in more recent commentaries. All TLRs (which began in February 20
27 September, 2020To Bridge America’s Partisan Divide
The election in November of Vice President Biden or the re-election of President Trump will not end America’s partisan divisions … its uncivil war. The Great Partisan Divide will persist. The genie
27 September, 2020An Interview with Cassandra
You may have read about Cassandra – the young (and, I should add, quite beautiful) priestess who the Greek god Apollo granted the power to accurately prophesize the future …, and then cursed so that h
20 September, 2020When is a Nation “At War”?
What is “war”? When can it be said that a nation is “at war”?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Contrary to conventional wisdom, war and its definition are not static. Like
13 September, 2020The Future of America’s Cities
in “The Big Blue Cities,” TLR discussed how polarization in America resulted in a geographical Great Bifurcation, contrasting the social, political, economic and aspirational goals of city-dwellers –
06 September, 2020Disrupting America’s Taxes
America’s tax system was built by capitalists for capitalists, for incentivizing job creation and business innovation, for encouraging class mobility. It’s a cornerstone of American democracy in a na
30 August, 2020The Fracturing US Dollar
Goldman Sachs issued a stern warning on July 28, 2020: There now are “[r]eal concerns around the longevity of the US Dollar as a reserve currency,” noting that “expanded balance sheets and [America’s]
23 August, 2020CoronaStatism (a budding branch of Coronanomics)
The Federal government is giving away money to bailing out America’s airlines. With Covid-19 ravaging airlines’ bottom lines, many believe this to be appropriate, an economically-wise decision.Loading
16 August, 2020Coronanomics 201.2
Inflation and deflation are often thought of as macroeconomic trends that impact broadly on national economies. Not always so. Although historians are prone to define periods broadly as inflationary
09 August, 2020Coronanomics 201
Coronanomics 201 Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America’s wealth is eroding. Its economic pie is shrinking …, and slices soon will be getting smaller. The focus of Corona
02 August, 2020Freedom of Speech and the Correctness Culture
Americans have a virtually unfettered right to say whatever they please. Although governments in other countries habitually limit free speech in order to filter their citizens’ thinking and actions,
26 July, 2020It’s All About That Base
Today’s TLR is not about music. It’s not about “That Bass” … or “The Treble” (thank you Meghan Trainor). Today’s TLR is about how to target voters in a Presidential campaign – it’s about That Base.L
19 July, 2020Revenge of the Zombies!
Today’s TLR is about Zombies, real economic Zombies. Individuals, companies, and governments that are the walking undead – suffocated by mountains of debt, doomed to eventual economic oblivion. Many a
12 July, 2020Capitalism vs. Socialism, the False Dichotomy*
Capitalism vs. Socialism, the False DichotomyLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America is the capital of Capitalism. It’s where laissez-faire isn’t merely a French phrase – i
05 July, 2020The Covid-19 Alphabet*
The Covid-19 AlphabetLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America is suffering through a pandemic that’s ravaged its confidence, its health and its economy … with only the most
28 June, 2020The Supremes and DACA Dreamin’*
The Supremes and DACA Dreamin’Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Headlines trumpeted a defeat for the Trump Administration on Thursday after the Supreme Court ruled that it ca
21 June, 2020Covid Math*
Covid MathLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Today’s craze is “Covid Math” … and everyone’s doing it. The media do it best, highlighting the juiciest, most exciting numbers an
14 June, 2020America’s Victory … or Al Qaeda’s?*
America’s Victory … or Al Qaeda’s?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The April 19, 2020 TLR highlighted America’s mountain of debt …, a substantial portion of which was borrow
07 June, 2020What is a “Fact”*
What is a “Fact”Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The dictionary defines a “fact” as “a thing that is known or proven to be true,” “something that has actual existence” … or,
31 May, 2020The Covid-19 Bridge Connecting A Bifurcated America*
The Covid-19 Bridge Connecting A Bifurcated AmericaLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... A year ago, in “The Hollowing Out of America,” TLR contrasted two different Americas: The
24 May, 2020National Health Insurance in America*
National Health Insurance in AmericaLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Today’s TLR is not about Obamacare … so relax. It’s also not an analysis of the various national health
16 May, 2020Coronanomics 101*
Coronanomics 101Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Remember “too big to fail,” the rationale for the government’s bailout of banks and large corporations during the 2008-09 Gl
09 May, 2020The Federalism Wars: The Covid-19 Battle; A Footnote to “The Hegemon’s Handbook”*
The Federalism Wars: The Covid-19 BattleLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America’s Constitution divides sovereignty between the Federal government and State governments. It
02 May, 2020The Hegemon’s Handbook*
The Hegemon’s HandbookLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... China has a goal. It’s a pretty straightforward one. It wants to take over the world. Not quite like Dr. Evil …, but n
25 April, 2020This Time is Different – A Redux*
This Time is Different – A ReduxLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As Mark Twain reputedly said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Is history repeating its
19 April, 2020Education in the Time of Covid-19*
Education in the Time of Covid-19Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America became the greatest nation on Earth because America’s educational system was the best on Earth … fr
12 April, 2020The Autocrats’ Playbook*
The Autocrats’ PlaybookLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... You have to hand it to Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Although he didn’t write The Autocrats’ Playbook, he has most certainl
05 April, 2020America’s Forthcoming Foreign Policy Crisis*
America’s Forthcoming Foreign Policy CrisisLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “We’ve got a health crisis and an economic crisis. The only thing missing is a foreign policy cri
29 March, 2020Winter Has Come*
Winter Has ComeLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... It’s Economic Winter in America … and it’s cold. How much colder might it get? Very cold indeed! In a period of 4 short weeks
22 March, 2020The Times They Are A’Changin’*
The Times They Are A’Changin’Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Most of us have not lived through a “force majeure” event: a hot war … or a horrific natural disaster … or an e
15 March, 2020The Convergence of Communism and Capitalism*
The Convergence of Communism and CapitalismLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What happens when politicians embrace and blend the essence of both Communism and Capitalism? Wha
09 March, 2020Panic Attack*
Panic AttackLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The February 18th TLR (“The China Virus”) addressed the potential healthcare-medical and healthscare-economic consequences of th
01 March, 2020Draining the Swamp*
Draining the SwampLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “Draining the swamp” refers to the practice of draining swampland to reduce alligator and mosquito populations …, in short
24 February, 2020The China Virus*
The China Syndrome VirusLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... China has been a breeding ground for all types of unpredictables. China’s yearning for exotic foods, its history and
18 February, 2020Seize the Moment!*
Seize the Moment!Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The 2020 Presidential race pits profligate big-spending Democrats against the profligate big-spending Trump Administration.
12 February, 2020The Weakening Dollar*
The Weakening DollarLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Who says the Dollar is weakening? That’s not possible. The Dollar is the world’s preeminent currency, its Reserve Curren
05 February, 2020The Failure of Rent Control*
The Failure of Rent ControlLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Rent control as a policy has failed. It is a primary cause of the urban housing shortage. The New York Times in D
30 January, 2020The Death of The American Dream?*
The Death of The American Dream?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Is it over? Has the Dream that made America great succumbed to the ravages of time … the effects of bad gove
15 January, 2020Axis of the Sanctioned, a Part 2 Postscript*
Axis of the Sanctioned, a Part 2 PostscriptLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... It was almost as if President Trump had read the January 2nd TLR, “Axis of the Sanctioned, Part 2
08 January, 2020Axis of the Sanctioned, Part 2*
Axis of the Sanctioned, Part 2Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “The enemy of my enemy is my friend,” the catchphrase in the June 21st TLR, is attributed to a 4th Century B.C
02 January, 2020Japan’s Economic Wormhole*
Japan’s Economic Wormhole[1]Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The December 12th TLR contrasted the belief of Inflationists that America is on the cusp of an inflationary spir
27 December, 2019The U.S. Constitution and The Rule of Law*
The U.S. Constitution and The Rule of LawLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America was founded on and has flourished by observing the Rule of Law, the foundation of democracy
18 December, 2019The Confrontation Between The Inflationists and The Deflationists*
The Confrontation Between The Inflationists and The DeflationistsLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The battle lines have been drawn for quite a while between The Inflationist
12 December, 2019The Dismal Science*
The Dismal ScienceLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Economics has been called “the dismal science” for any number of good reasons. It was first referred to as “dismal’ in 184
04 December, 2019What if There were No More Recessions?*
What if There were No More Recessions?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What if Central Bankers have figured out how to successfully manage the global economy? What if they a
26 November, 2019The Widening Divide; “Pardon Me” Redux*
The Widening DivideLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “For the majority of the human species, and for tens of thousands of years, the idea that humanity includes every human b
20 November, 2019Expiring Canaries*
Expiring CanariesLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The June 24th TLR quoted several prominent hedge fund managers who in June asserted that gold was entering a new bull marke
13 November, 2019The Authoritarian’s Playbook*
The Authoritarian’s PlaybookLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... As explained in prior TLRs, Turkey was once the shining example of a secular Islamic republic with an 80+-year h
07 November, 2019The Free Speech Cycle*
The Free Speech CycleLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution (together with the Fourteenth Amendment) provides that neither Congress no
30 October, 2019The Great Disruptor*
The Great DisruptorLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, is The Great Disruptor. There is little disagreement that in his l
23 October, 2019Market Manipulation, Securities Fraud and Insider Trading*
Market Manipulation, Securities Fraud and Insider TradingLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Is there such a thing as a securities law Trifecta? The Chief Executive Officer of
18 October, 2019Tales from the Economic Dark Side*
Tales from the Economic Dark SideLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Markets alternate between optimism and pessimism in a struggle that pits bulls against bears. Since optimis
11 October, 2019Foggy Economics*
Foggy EconomicsLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Where are those neat crystal ball predictions that students of economics used to rely on? Why is it that so many of today’s a
07 October, 2019The Legal Precedent of Impeachment*
The Legal Precedent of ImpeachmentLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Over the more than 230 years of U.S. history, Articles of Impeachment have been filed by the House of Repr
04 October, 2019The Failure of American Foreign Policy
Historians eagerly highlight the foreign policy strategies pursued by the overtly hawkish Reagan Administration, a strategy of “peace through strength.” As described in “Speak Softly and Carry a Big
30 September, 2019America’s Different Democracy, or How Change Has Come to America*
America’s Different Democracy, or How Change Has Come to AmericaLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America’s government is a Constitutional democracy that differs significantl
25 September, 2019California Dreaming*
California DreamingLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Californians for the last several decades have dreamed of making their State an American Utopia. And California’s governm
20 September, 2019Negotiation as Art*
Negotiation as ArtLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Being a successful negotiator means mastering an art, which requires years of practice as well as the integration of massi
16 September, 2019The Faithless Electors of America’s Electoral College*
The Faithless Electors of America’s Electoral CollegeLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Americans have been complaining about the compromises that went into creation of
13 September, 2019Should You Be a Contrarian?; Twitter Update*
Should You Be a Contrarian?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What does it mean to be a contrarian? The Oxford dictionary defines a contrarian as “a person who opposes or reje
09 September, 2019Plutocrats and Plutocats*
Plutocrats and PlutocatsLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... A “plutocrat” is a person whose wealth gives him power – put simply, a “plutocrat” is a very, very rich person. Rece
06 September, 2019The Twitter Market*
The Twitter MarketLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Stock markets go up and stock markets go down. America’s current bull market has been going up since 2009, its longest run
02 September, 2019The Role of the Corporation in America*
The Role of the Corporation in AmericaLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America’s corporations and their CEOs – in fact, the concept of corporatism and American Capitalism th
30 August, 2019A Weaker US Dollar?*
A Weaker US Dollar?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The July 19th TLR (“Be Careful What You Wish For”) mused about “Why President Trump wants a weaker US Dollar” and specula
26 August, 2019What is the Meaning of American Capitalism?*
What is the Meaning of American Capitalism?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Americans believe in freedom, independence, democracy … and the value of their capitalist system.
23 August, 2019Is This Time the Same?*
Is This Time the Same?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Is history repeating itself? Most economists and historians think so. They believe that cycles recur, that human natur
21 August, 2019Announcing the Winners of the U.S.-China Trade War*
Announcing the Winners of the U.S.-China Trade WarLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Be patient. Wait for it… If you’re familiar with the children’s card game “War,” you also
19 August, 2019The Evil of Private Equity*
The Evil of Private EquityLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “A Delicate Balancing Act” in the May 29th TLR discussed a New York Times editorial entitled “Charity Won’t Solve
16 August, 2019Updates, Part 2*
“Axis of the Sanctioned” (June 21st TLR)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The theme of “Axis of the Sanctioned” was that “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” It warned that
09 August, 2019American Exceptionalism*
American ExceptionalismLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What is American Exceptionalism? What is it that makes a country, any country, exceptional? The Merriam-Webster dicti
05 August, 2019Laws, Regulations … and Conservative Values; Revisiting Rent Control*
Laws, Regulations … and Conservative ValuesLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Bret Stephens wrote an editorial in the New York Times on July 26th that addressed concerns he ha
31 July, 2019Lying, Cheating and the Corrosion of Democracy*
Lying, Cheating and the Corrosion of DemocracyLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... From the title, you might suppose that today’s TLR is about America’s elected officials. Altho
29 July, 2019There’s Something Happening Here*
There’s Something Happening HereLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “The Canary in the Gold Mine” in the June 24th TLR quoted several prominent hedge funds managers who believe
26 July, 2019TLR Updates, Part 1*
“Will Modern Monetary Theory Work” (April 14th TLR) and “They’re All Keynsians Now” (March 27th TLR)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Republicans no longer are believer
24 July, 2019The Big Blue Cities*
The Big Blue CitiesLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “The Hollowing Out of America” in the July 12th TLR discussed the geographical polarization of America. The “United State
22 July, 2019Be Careful What You Wish For; The Trade War with China*
Be Careful What You Wish ForLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... President Trump wants the US Dollar to be weaker. He has browbeat told asked the Federal Reserve to lower intere
19 July, 2019The Coming Recession*
The Coming RecessionLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Gary Shilling is one of modern America’s storied economists. He has nailed any number of economic turns over the past 40
17 July, 2019It’s Congress’s Fault*
It’s Congress’s FaultLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... America’s Constitutional system provides for a sharing of power among the three branches of Federal government: the exe
15 July, 2019The Hollowing Out of America*
The Hollowing Out of AmericaLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... There have always been two Americas: the rural, onetime agricultural America; and the urban, once the-center-of-
12 July, 2019Insider Trading; Revisiting Eldridge Gerry’s Salamander*
Insider TradingLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Everyone’s doing it …, right? Of course not. Everyone knows that it’s against the law to trade on inside information … right?
10 July, 2019The Art of the Deal*
The Art of the DealLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What is President Trump’s strategy in trade negotiations with China … in the pre-negotiation sanctions imposed on Iran …
08 July, 2019Government Regulation*
Government RegulationLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Is government regulation good for America … or bad for America? The answer, of course, is that sometimes it’s good and
03 July, 2019The Essence of a Meritocracy*
The Essence of a MeritocracyLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... It’s about our children … your kids, Marty. Something’s got to be done about them (paying respects to Back to th
01 July, 2019Rent Stabilization/Control is Back*
Rent Stabilization/Control is BackLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... With a vengeance. At least it now is in New York State (and is a growing trend in a few other States as we
28 June, 2019Leaving the European Union*
Leaving the European UnionLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Is Brexit a Good Idea or a Bad Idea? That depends on who you are and what your definition is of “a good idea.” Bor
26 June, 2019The Canary in the Gold Mine; Certain Trump-Promised Policies*
The Canary in the Gold MineLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... It wasn’t until 1913 that miners were first urged to bring caged canaries down into coal mines. They became the e
24 June, 2019Can Money Be Digitized?; Axis of the Sanctioned*
Can Money Be Digitized? (a supplement to “What is Money?” in the June 12th TLR)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Money’s new name, apparently, could be Libra. Facebook is in
21 June, 2019Deflation?*
Deflation?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Winter Deflation is coming. Or is it? If deflation is coming, will Central Bankers once again be able to Defend the Wall keep it a
19 June, 2019What is a Conservative? And what is a Liberal?*
What is a Conservative? And what is a Liberal?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Labeling oneself a Conservative in 2019 is not the same as actually being a Conservative, cert
17 June, 2019The Offensive Against America’s Champions; The Abortion/Anti-Abortion Cycle*
The Offensive Against America’s ChampionsLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Google/Alphabet are America’s capitalist champions most notorious monop
14 June, 2019What is Money?*
What is Money?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Money is an alternative to barter. It serves as a medium of exchange. In order to be functional (especially in today’s global
12 June, 2019Constitutionally Speaking*
Constitutionally SpeakingLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Since the Great Depression, and with few exceptions, American Presidents, legislators and judges have been scrupulo
10 June, 2019What If?*
What If?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What might a seminal Constitutional Crisis look like? We’re talking hypothetically, of course. It might start something like this: T
07 June, 2019A History Lesson; Deglobalization = Volatility*
A History LessonLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... An often-heard refrain today among younger Americans is that they don’t have the same opportunities to achieve the American
05 June, 2019Diversification versus Diworsification; American Education as an Exercise in Capitalism*
Diversification versus DiworsificationLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Diversification is a means of wealth preservation that spreads investments among a range of assets and
03 June, 2019Wagging the Dog*
Wagging the DogLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “Wagging the dog” is a synonym for a magician’s trick of focusing attention on a figurative “shiny object” to distract audien
31 May, 2019A Delicate Balancing Act; More Turkey Anyone?*
A Delicate Balancing ActLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The NY Times on May 21st published an editorial entitled “Charity Won’t Solve Student Debt” the title of which spotl
29 May, 2019The Work Ethic and Demographics; Pardon Me*
The Work Ethic and DemographicsLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Many Americans believe that younger generations don’t have the same work ethic as their elders. They don’t pu
24 May, 2019The Trade War with China: What’s America’s Beef?*
The Trade War with China: What’s America’s Beef?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Some have argued that the Trump Administration’s tariffs against China are overdone, a flexi
22 May, 2019The Most Important Takeaway from the Mueller Investigation; A Reader’s Comment on “The Return to Truthiness” in the May 15th TLR*
The Most Important Takeaway from the Mueller InvestigationLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The most important takeaway from the Muller Investigation is that Russia’s interfe
20 May, 2019Notes on 2017 Tax Reform; Saving Face*
Notes on 2017 Tax ReformLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) was a complicated piece of legislation that added a host of new tax provisi
17 May, 2019The Return of Truthiness*
The Return of TruthinessLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Coined by Stephen Colbert, Truthiness “is the belief or assertion that a particular statement is true based on the i
15 May, 2019The High-Tech Arms Race; Tariffs are Bad*
The High-Tech Arms RaceLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... We humans have a primal fear of machines and their capacity to out-think and potentially replace us. We worry that wi
13 May, 2019Managing The Economic Cycle (Part 2); Let’s Talk Turkey (again)*
Managing The Economic Cycle (Part 2)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Despite rumors to the contrary, Economic Cycles have not been repealed. As the current Economic Expansio
10 May, 2019Managing The Economic Cycle (Part 1)*
Managing The Economic Cycle (Part 1)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... An Economic Cycle has four stages. Simply stated, there’s (1) an expansion that reaches (2) a peak and r
08 May, 2019The Irritating IRS*
The Irritating IRSLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Who likes the Internal Revenue Service? Raise your hands now. Hmmmm. No hands. The U.S. has a self-assessing income tax sy
06 May, 2019America at War*
America at WarLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The U.S. has increasingly weaponized sanctions and tariffs in an effort to force hostile countries to bend or surrender to Ame
03 May, 2019Silent Spring; You Gotta Love the SEC (or how to spoil a clever insider trading plan)*
Silent Spring (with apologies to Rachel Carson)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... If you were driving a car in the 1980s, you’d have had to pull off the highway from time-to-t
01 May, 2019Kate Smith; Emails are Forever: Gerrymandering Redux*
Kate SmithLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Kate Smith, known at various times as the “Song Bird of the South” and “the First Lady of Radio,” is best known today for her rend
29 April, 2019Whither Taxes?*
If you’re the “average” American, 2017 tax reform means that your taxes have gone down a bit … although they’ve gone up for those unfortunates, whether or not “average,” who live in the wrong States a
26 April, 2019Elbridge Gerry’s Salamander;The Kremlin says that The Mueller Report found no evidence of Russian Meddling*
Elbridge Gerry’s SalamanderLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Did you ever wonder where the term “gerrymander” comes from? (It means the redrawing of electoral maps in o
24 April, 2019“Our Country is Full”; Revisiting the meaning of “Red Storm Rising”*
“Our Country is Full” – President Donald Trump (April 5, 2019)Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What does it mean for a country to be “full”? In a November 2018 prepared stat
22 April, 2019The Fabulous Federal Reserve*
America’s economy has been on a roll since the Great Recession of 2009. GDP has been on a steady rise with average annual increases in excess of 2{29ea29b64b10057f61377b2c087cd5b7537a0cd24da4295a308b0
19 April, 2019The Parable of the Earbuds: The Tension Between Consumption and Investment*
You have some extra cash. What should you do with it?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... There are those Earbuds you’ve been coveting. Apple makes the coolest ones, but you rec
17 April, 2019Will Modern Monetary Theory Work?*
MMT provides a textbook illustration of Stein’s Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” MMT will work – in fact, it is working, and it will continue to work – until at some point it wi
15 April, 2019Red Storm Rising (with a bow to Tom Clancy)*
No, it’s not about a pending war with Russia.Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... It’s about China’s current war – its Stealth War – against America. And no, it’s not simply a T
12 April, 2019A Quick Report on the Economic Climate; The Rise of Populism and the Agonizing Death of Compromise*
A Quick Report on the Economic ClimateLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... For reasons that should be apparent, this is an opportune time to take the world’s macroeconomic tempe
10 April, 2019Does Central Planning Work?; University Admissions and the American Meritocracy*
Does Central Planning Work?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Well, does it? Citizens of the former Soviet Union and its Eastern Bloc satellites would answer with a resounding
08 April, 2019The Rule of Law; Recycling … Garbage-in, Garbage-no-longer-out*
The Rule of Law Strict adherence to the Rule of Law has been AmericaÔÇÖs differentiator. ItÔÇÖs what has made America great. ItÔÇÖs the reason why American democracy is historyÔÇÖs most durable and
05 April, 2019A Universal Basic Income*
In February, Stockton California began America’s first experiment with a universal basic income (UBI) – sometimes referred to as “free money” – when it sent debit cards loaded with $500 to a group of
03 April, 2019Let’s Talk Turkey; A Financial Transaction Tax?*
Let’s Talk TurkeyLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The country, not the bird. Change happens. In Turkey, change has been a slow-motion slide into dictatorship. Turkey used to
01 April, 2019A Simple Take-away from the Mueller Investigation; Paradigm Shifts*
A Simple Take-away from the Mueller InvestigationLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The Mueller Investigation was not about whether President Trump conspired with Vladimir Put
29 March, 2019Speak Softly and Carry A Big Stick; They’re All Keynsians Now*
Speak Softly and Carry A Big StickLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Big Stick Diplomacy was Theodore Roosevelt’s foreign policy trademark. Roosevelt described his style as “t
27 March, 2019Will Central Planning Work?; How do we Solve a Problem like North Korea?*
Will Central Planning Work?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Friday’s The Lonely Realist was distributed early on a turbulent news-filled day. That news included March’s EU f
25 March, 2019The Central Bankers’ Dilemma; Was Pax Americana Good for America?*
The Central Bankers’ DilemmaLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... On March 30th, the Federal Reserve announced that it does not intend to increase interest rates in 2019. It has
22 March, 2019What is Terrorism?; How Useful are Prospectuses?*
What is Terrorism?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Words matter … in their innuendos as well as in their dictionary definitions. The words uttered by world leaders matter mo
20 March, 2019The First Amendment, a Free Press and Journalism; A Recession?*
The First Amendment, a Free Press and JournalismLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... What is the obverse of a “free press”? We’ve once again reached a point in history where tha
18 March, 2019Global Economic Stability; A Partial Scorecard of Trump-Promised Policies*
Global Economic StabilityLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The past 10 years, post the Great Recession, has been a period of surprisingly measured global economic growth. Alt
15 March, 2019Whither Inflation?; A Peak at the Meltdown of Retailing*
Whither Inflation (an ongoing discussion)?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and other
13 March, 20191937; Our Greatest Resource – Our Children*
1937Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... 1937 is not a notable part of a 20th Century history course. If you asked a history professor the events in 1937 that students should in
11 March, 2019Does Truth Matter?; Relativism in the Courts (or how to dance on the head of a pin)*
Does Truth Matter?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Some believe the beginnings can be traced to Bill Clinton when he said “I did not have sex with that woman.” Before our Pr
08 March, 2019The Times They are A-Changin; Qualified Opportunity Zones*
The Times They are A-ChanginLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... “Most of us assume that the future will more or less resemble the present, but this is not necessarily so. In a
06 March, 2019Author’s Note
Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... I’ve received a number of comments from readers confused by the cross-outs in The Lonely Realist. I did not intend them to be a source
04 March, 2019Change is Coming; A Perpetual Bull Market*
Change is ComingLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Remember when successful people who became wealthy were treated as paradigms of the American Dream? The successful entrepren
03 March, 2019Are our Tax Laws Overly Complex?; Executive Power*
Are our Tax Laws Overly Complex?Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Yes. They also distort economic activity, misallocating resources and reducing productivity. They were draft
01 March, 2019Elon Musk; Are we experiencing a 1937 Redux?; The Markets*
Elon MuskLoading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Elon Musk is the CEO of Tesla. He used to also be Chairman, but was forced to resign when he allegedly committed securities fraud i
27 February, 2019