“Is the bull back?” – The Lonely Realist The bear warnings have been ominous. Virtually every seasoned analyst today is predicting a 2023 recession. One of America’s premier economists, A. Gary Shilling, goes further, saying that the recession already has started …, although it “won’t be...
“Although America is experiencing bitter partisanship, core policy execution will be the same whether the next President is named Trump or Biden.” – The Lonely Realist Three major policies occupy the bulk of Presidential attention: fiscal; foreign; and social. With Republicans and Democrats at terminal loggerheads,...
“It’s the economy, stupid!” – James Carville (1992) Americans vote their wallets. Whether they like the incumbent’s or the challenger’s policies … or hate them both, they’ll vote for the candidate they believe will impact most positively on their economic health. If America’s economy has been...
“No one enjoyed watching this past year's "The Big Bust." Inflation, crypto winter, bank crises. Wow! How will this movie end?” – The Lonely Realist The Big Boom, America’s favorite movie for more than a decade, ended its run more than a year ago. Its sequel,...
“The canaries have stopped singing.” – Cassandra “The canaries are nervously pacing their cages.” – The Lonely Realist Cassandra’s warnings in prior TLRs presaged today's widely-held conclusion that the global economy has passed a tipping point. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, First Republic and...