05 Jul Fulfilling Campaign Promises

“How to measure Trump Administration success?” – The Lonely Realist

The Lonely Realist recently received emails from two readers heaping praise on President Trump:

“America now has secure borders;
America has instituted mass deportations of criminal illegals;
The stock market is at an all time high;
Inflation is low;
Energy prices are low;
America is experiencing low unemployment;
Trump tariffs are leading to improved trade agreements;
The 2017 tax cuts are being extended;
There will be no taxation of tips, overtime or social security, and auto loan interest will be deductible;
DOGE has achieved significant budget savings;
The Deep State has been gutted;
Military recruitment is at an all-time high;
Law enforcement is respected;
Iran’s nuclear program has been obliterated;
Iran and Israel are at peace;
India and Pakistan are at peace;
Congo and Rwanda are at peace;
There has been progress on Russia-Ukraine peace;
NATO has increased its military spending to President Trump’s standards;
There no longer are boys playing in girls’ sports;
Nationwide injunctions by District Court judges have been eliminated;
DEI programs were eliminated;
‘Elite’ universities are being punished for ignoring/encouraging antisemitism.”

Just as TLR cautioned against harshly judging the Trump Administration on the basis of its “first 100 days in office” or on its market-crushing “Liberation Day” pronouncements, judging its accomplishments and failures 166 days into President Trump’s 4-year term is premature. Donald Trump’s November election victory ushered in a period of disruption (as TLR highlighted in Parts 1, 2, and 3 of “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once”). Candidate Trump pledged to bring substantial change to America (including via “Project 2025”) – and that’s precisely what he’s doing. The fruits of that disruption will take time to ripen or rot. Yet there are reasons to applaud his fulfillment of campaign promises, a relative rarity among politicians.

America today indeed has secure borders. Although those borders have been “secure” since 9/11 in the sense that America’s government protected Americans against terrorism, smuggling and human trafficking, immigration is the demon that Candidate Trump promised to exorcise by “securing the borders.” To do so, the Administration has been spending lavishly and deporting illegals, though not only – or even primarily – “criminal illegals” (with the Administration defining anyone not in compliance with immigration law as a criminal). It could have been doing so within appropriate legal constraints, but nevertheless has stuck to Candidate Trump’s #1 campaign pledge.

From an economic perspective, the stock market indeed is at an all-time high, inflation indeed remains low, energy prices also are low, and America is continuing to experience low unemployment. However, these are all trends that existed prior to Inauguration Day. It is premature to credit the good economic news to a President who’s been in office for a mere 166 days.

The consequences of the Trump Administration’s tariff policy currently are unknowable. The Administration’s efforts have not yet led to improved trade agreements. What can be said is that the tariffs are increasing tax collections, a good thing because it positively impacts on America’s debt and deficits. However, there are and will be collateral consequences (which already include a rapid decline in the Dollar…, which pleases the President because of its short-term stimulative effects and worries economists because of its medium- and long-term ramifications).

A waiting game also applies with respect to the Big Beautiful Bill. Extension of the 2017 tax cuts deserves praise for fulfilling another campaign pledge. Its short-term economic impact will be positive stimulative. However, by increasing America’s debt and deficits, the longer-term consequences could prove catastrophic [ED NOTE: Senator King (I-ME) has added that “Imagine a bunch of guys sitting around a table, saying, ‘I’ve got a great idea. Let’s give $32,000 worth of tax breaks to a millionaire and we’ll pay for it by taking health insurance away from lower-income and middle-income people. And to top it off, how about we cut food stamps, we cut SNAP, we cut food aid to people [starting only after the mid-term elections in 2026]?’”]. The Big Beautiful Bill eliminates reduces tax on tips, overtime and auto loans by allowing individuals to deduct up to $25,000 for tip wages, $12,500 for overtime and $10,000 for auto loan interest, and adds a “senior deduction” (all four of which sunset at the end of 2028), with social security payments continuing to be taxable for individuals having more than $25,000 of income – in sum, the Trump Administration has partially delivered on these campaign promises.

Despite recent readers’ praise, DOGE, however, has been a failure. Although precise Dollar savings from DOGE’s actions remain opaque, DOGE’s manic budget cutting reduced the Federal budget by tens of billions of Dollars and not the promised $2 trillion. Its random gutting of the Deep State also came at the cost of increased government inefficiency and confusion and key personnel loss.

Military recruitment indeed is at an all-time high and law enforcement is respected, both of which are Trump Administration accomplishments.

Whether Iran’s nuclear program indeed has been obliterated is unknown. Nevertheless, President Trump’s targeted execution of a “peace through strength” policy in support of Israel, an American ally, was effective and deserves significant praise. Another notable Trump Administration achievement has been the forced increase in NATO nations’ military spending from less than 2% of GDP to more than 3.5%…, by 2035.

However, Iran and Israel are not at peace. Nor are India and Pakistan or Congo and Rwanda, and Vladimir Putin has rejected progress on a Ukraine peace deal, a repudiation of the “one-day” Trump campaign promise. Assertions to the contrary are an echo of social media puffery.

DEI programs have been dismantled (and not only in the Federal government but also by means of government pressure on private industry), nationwide injunctions by District Court judges have been eliminated, boys no longer will be playing in girls’ sports, and “elite” universities are being punished for ignoring/encouraging antisemitism. These also represent the fulfillment of campaign pledges.

Today’s TLR is not intended to contrast the foregoing with actions taken by the Trump Administration that raise Constitutional, due process, Rule of Law, or other issues. The fact is that Donald Trump has, to a significant extent, pursued what he’d promised to pursue and, on balance, has fulfilled his campaign promises, which is no minor achievement. Nevertheless, the consequences of fulfilling those campaign promises have yet to be determined. The fact is that it’s too soon – only 166 days into the Trump Presidency – to reach any conclusion as to the net benefits and detriments of virtually all Trump Administration actions.

Finally (from a good friend)