19 Apr Going it Alone

“‘America First’ means ‘America Alone.’” – The Lonely Realist

America First policy is anchored in a zero-sum world where “might makes right” and America necessarily needs to go it alone, taking whatever it wants from other countries. It has no need for trading partners, allies, or international rules. America intends to make up the rules as it goes along…, just like its President.

America today is tariffing international trade with the goal of disadvantaging America’s former(?) trading partners by facilitating the onshoring of manufacturing, mining, refining, etc. What’s not clear is what kind of tariff regime will result from President Trump’s tariff starts, stops and pauses. America, for example, has disavowed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that Trump 1.0 signed less than 7 years ago, imposing new tariffs on both countries…, noting that Canada and Mexico account for almost half of U.S. auto imports. Trump 2.0 has imposed new tariffs on everyone – in Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, Australia and even Antarctica. The President’s seemingly arbitrary process has caused anger and undermined trust, so much so that foreign capital no longer is viewing the U.S. as quite the same investment haven…, noting that the Trump 2.0 tariff tantrum has sent bond yields spiking and produced a weakening dollar. The only certainty today is that whatever emerges will be new and radically different from the system that previously drove global growth.

The same “going it alone” message was sent to America’s military former(?) allies. Foundational to America First is the conviction that America is the all-powerful global hegemon with the ability to impose its will worldwide, the President repeatedly lamenting American spending of “hundreds of billions of dollars” to defend ungrateful former(?) allies. They now will have to fend for themselves. President Trump has singled out NATO, Japan, South Korea and others threatening that “If [those countries] don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them.” Vice President Vance in his February Munich address shocked governments in Europe and Asia. That was followed by President Trump’s humiliation of Volodymir Zelenskyy (Trump 2.0 believing that an end to the Ukraine War will benefit America by flooding the world with Ukraine’s mineral wealth and cheap Russian oil and gas). Both the President and Vice President have added belittling comments about France, Denmark, Canada and other former(?) American friends (while heaping praise on Vladimir Putin). The Trump Administration has one overriding enemy, however – China –, recently calling the Chinese people “peasants” and pursuing policies intended to thwart China’s ambitions to absorb Taiwan, acquire Western technology and freely engage in international trade, doing so without relying on its former(?) allies and trading partners.

The President and Vice President have voiced America’s intention to forcibly annex Greenland, showing disdain for others’ national sovereignty and territorial integrity. America, after all, can take what it wants…, and it wants Greenland…, the Panama Canal…, Canada as its 51^st State…, and U.S.-weighted global tariffs.

President Trump is simultaneously consolidating power in Washington, D.C., undercutting States Rights and co-opting the Legislative and Judicial Branches of government by arrogating decision-making to himself (as TLR previously noted).

Whether within a President’s Constitutional rights or not, Trump 2.0 has been intent on imposing his will, including by banishing DEI…, and not solely from Federal agencies over which he has Executive Control, but also from public and private entities, State governments, law firms, universities, etc. Those who advocate DEI or otherwise oppose Trump 2.0 policies accordingly have been made targets of Federal retribution, President Trump notably threatening the State of Maine to change its laws: “You’d better comply because otherwise you’re not getting any federal funding.” The President has made similar demands on Ivy League universities, the President posting “Perhaps Harvard [as well as Columbia, Princeton, etc.] should lose its Tax Exempt Status and be Taxed as a Political Entity if it keeps pushing political, ideological, and terrorist inspired/supporting ‘Sickness?’” He also has strong-armed law firms, directed the Department of Justice to bar DOJ lawyers from participating in American Bar Association events, and branded judges who disagree with him as “crooked.” Such efforts at Federal control of State government, judges, lawyers, educational institutions, private businesses, industry, and the Federal Reserve (“Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”) signify an accelerating slide into Statism – the concentration of economic, social and political control in the hands of a centralized government –, a trend that TLR has consistently condemned. Statism practiced by the Biden Administration was denounced by Scott Bessent as a “discredited economic philosophy of central planning” and “social and political engineering … managed [by] subsidizing supply in favored industries and restricting it in disfavored ones…,” precisely what is being practiced by the Trump Administration today.

As TLR previously noted, the goal of Trump 2.0 is revolutionary change. The directive to appointees is to go fast, break-up bureaucracies and change government practices, which naturally is fomenting chaos. The quantity of glass already broken has magnified that chaos. Whether or not things work out as the President hopes is unknowable. No one can predict whether it is wise to go fast and simultaneously break so much glass, especially in foreign affairs and international trade. There is no historical precedent. The WSJ recently asked, “Is There a New U.S. Risk Premium?” Foreign policy pundits, economists and soothsayers are busy applying existing tools and theories, but no one is an expert in today’s unique times and no tool can produce a confident conclusion under current conditions (noting that war between the U.S. and China remains the most significant risk facing the world today). After all, there has been no large-scale trade war, international treaty sundering, political revolution disruption, debt and deficits at such unprecedented levels, or global contest for military, economic and political supremacy in an era simultaneously experiencing technological, biomedical and AI revolutions.

Finally (from a good friend)

APRIL 24TH IS TAKE YOUR OUR SONS AND DAUGHTERS TO WORK DAY: