13 Sep

The End of Ukraine

“Russia is winning the Ukraine War. What will Russia’s victory mean?” – The Lonely Realist

Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated his intention to achieve total victory over Ukraine. He will not discuss a ceasefire (yet alone a peace treaty) without first receiving international acknowledgement of Russia’s right to annex Ukrainian territory and incorporate within its borders at least the portions of Ukraine it currently occupies (comprising ~20% of Ukraine) as well as the provinces it claims but does not yet occupy. In addition, he has demanded confirmation from Ukraine’s Western allies that what remains of Ukraine will never be permitted to join NATO, that sanctions against Russia will be abandoned, and that Ukraine will be “demilitarized and denazified,” the latter meaning that Western nations concede that Ukraine has been a breakaway Russian territory ripe for further annexation. Mr. Putin has been relentless in stating and restating these demands and has treated pleas for negotiations as fruitless exercises in the absence of Ukraine’s and the West’s acceptance of his preconditions. He has said that “[negotiations would be useless] because it is nearly impossible to reach agreement with the Ukrainian side on key issues”…, which is true for obvious reasons.

TLR wrote in 2022 that “the Ukraine War is a test of both logistics and will.” Both Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated the requisite will. However, only Russia has demonstrated the necessary logistics. Because of its deep resources and lack of compunction in waging a war of attrition, TLR predicted that Russia would be the winner. It has demonstrated those advantages by ignoring the restrictions of the Geneva Convention (it has decimated Ukraine’s civilian population centers) and successfully leveraged its outsized manpower, greater firepower and alliances with China, North Korea and Iran. Ukraine has amply demonstrated its will over the past 3-1/2 years, but does not have comparable manpower, weaponry, or munitions or alliances. Ukraine also lacks the manufacturing infrastructure needed to produce the quantity and quality of armaments and munitions capable of competing with Russia’s (plus China’s) militarized economic juggernaut. It has depended heavily on America for support – for ammunition, technology and logistics. That support was mostly forthcoming…, until recently. America has been pulling back. Russia over the past several months has been absorbing almost 200 square miles of Ukrainian territory per month in a slow-moving, though seemingly inexorable land grab. At the same time, it has been pummeling Ukraine’s power facilities, industrial sites, cities and towns with increasing quantities of drones and missiles that have been taking a significant military and economic toll which, at the same time, has been damaging recruitment efforts and undermining national morale. The fact is that since February 2022 Ukraine has lost 17% of its population – which at the War’s start in February 2022 was only 30% of Russia’s. With America pulling back and Ukraine increasingly dependent for its financial and logistical support on a militarily inferior the EU, it is not surprising that Ukraine’s will is waning…, with the consequence that Russia is drawing closer to victory. As in every war, there has had to be a winner and there has to be a loser.

Russia has demonstrated the value of long-term attrition warfare that favors Russia’s superior manpower, militarized production capacity, and allied support. Ukraine therefore has been compelled to change its strategy, which has ceased to be about pursuing victory and instead has become “to systematically deny [Russia] the ability to achieve its military goals [by learning to survive] under constant military pressure.” That strategy cannot succeed…, even assuming that the Ukrainian populace continues to have the will. That strategy also is being weakened by America’s decision to reduce its prior level of military, logistical and financial support (“Peace through Strength” no longer carrying the Reagan era definition). America not only is pulling back, it also has ceased pressing Mr. Putin for negotiations that could lead to a peaceful resolution. Without American pressure and support, Ukraine cannot hope to prevent a Russian victory, with that outcome now fully understood not only by Vladimir Putin, but by Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un, Narendra Modi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the world’s other leaders. It is one of the reasons why those leaders (26 in all) chose to pay homage to China at its recent WWII victory celebration by being photographed with Chairman Xi and witnessing an impressive display of Chinese military hardware and marching troops. All understand that NATO without America cannot provide Ukraine with the resources necessary to sustain the current battle lines. Although military and technological nativism today is in vogue in Europe, the necessary expertise, infrastructure and financial wherewithal are lacking. Despite their nuclear arsenals, neither France (with its “Force de dissuasion”), nor Britain nor the entire EU has the military wherewithal to compete with Mr. Putin’s Russia, whose militarized economic engine is supported and enhanced by China and North Korea. Moreover, Europe is far from united in its opposition to an expanding Russian Empire. The leaders of Romania, Slovakia, Serbia, Georgia, and Turkey (and, soon, the Czech Republic) have expressed their fandom for Vladimir Putin. Adding to their enthusiasm, the Trump Administration recently announced that it intends to reduce NATO funding and no longer will fund military training and infrastructure in Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, the most likely targets (in addition to recently-droned Poland?) for Mr. Putin’s ongoing expansionism.

As in most wars, the success of Russia’s forces has been gradual. Ukraine’s collapse, however, is likely to be sudden…, and that end is approaching. Russia is continuing to chew up Ukrainian land and lives. Insofar as a peaceful settlement is concerned, Mr. Putin has vetoed anything other than a Ukrainian surrender. President Zelenskyy understands this reality and has been focused full-time on attempts to procure security guarantees from Europe and the U.S. His goal is to ensure that any “deal” to end the War will not simply become an intermission that allows Russia to subsequently complete Ukraine’s absorption. Mr. Putin’s plan, however, is to do precisely that. He has rejected any possibility of security guarantees. Achieving his goal of establishing a Russia-centric post-cold war European order requires Mr. Putin to facilitate America’s withdrawal from Europe and “kill NATO’s credibility,” which he is doing. Mr. Putin’s designs on Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) remain unchanged: annexation and integration into a reconstituted Russian Empire…, followed by the creation/absorption of additional “buffers” that will “protect” Russia from the West. In that effort, he continues to make perceptible progress.

Finally (from a good friend)