2024 Election Results

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” – Niels Bohr

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Which Candidate will grab the brass ring on November 5th? The odds-makers and poll-takers are suggesting a Republican sweep of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. But we all know that gambling on the odds is a coin-toss, that odds-making is manipulatable…, that (as the Wall Street Journal has reported) the election odds in 2024 in fact are being manipulated, and that poll-taking is inaccurate…, as recent election results amply demonstrate. Who, then, can predict the outcome of the 2024 election?

The oracle of the predictive art is Cassandra. She not only foresaw the Trojan Horse, but in October 2020 accurately predicted that “if vote-counting shows him to be the loser, [President Trump] will not accept the result, not based on the popular vote-count and not based on the votes of electors in the Electoral College,” adding that “I foretold the destruction by the Greeks of my home in Troy when my countrymen, ignoring my prophesy, brought the Trojan Horse into the city. Assumptions about the electoral process are America’s Trojan Horse and will result in America’s version of Greek Tragedy [that is, January 6, 2021].”

TLR and the fabled Cassandra sat down for a mythical chat this past Thursday (with TLR noting that, even with her Gods-given insights, Cassandra is not in the habit of informing acolytes when her predictions change…, as they are apt to do. Nevertheless, with her 3000-year record of discerning prophecies, TLR again believes it is worthwhile to pay attention to Cassandra’s insights):

TL Realist:           Good afternoon, Cassandra. With Election Day fast approaching, readers of TLR once again are clamoring to hear your views. Thank you for taking the time today to speak.
Cassandra:          The pleasure is all mine, Mr. Realist.

TL Realist:           Let me begin by quoting a recent Bloomberg interview with hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller in which Mr. Druckenmiller said that the markets are “very convinced Trump is going to win. You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto.” Is that how you see it, Cassandra?
Cassandra:          Pardon my smile, Mr. Realist. America’s stock markets are not an accurate predictor of anything, yet alone a Presidential election. As you and I have discussed many times, the markets are reacting to America’s economic outperformance, not to the upcoming Presidential election. That outperformance owes its success to Federal stimulus and the actions of the Federal Reserve which, as I explained again this past August, has provided Americans with appropriate capital infusions and economic management expertise. My predictions of an economy-wide expansion, waning inflation and rising stock market prices accordingly have proven correct.

TL Realist:           Even so, Cassandra, that raises the question of whether the markets are affecting reality rather than reality driving the markets. For example, the odds displayed on Polymarket strongly favor Candidate Trump and are creating a consequent narrative. Will that narrative affect the election outcome?
Cassandra:          I am not a public relations expert, Mr. Realist. I cannot tell you what effect betting odds might have on an election. I can only foresee what the outcome of the election will be.

TL Realist:           A point well-taken, Cassandra. What will the outcome be on November 5th?
Cassandra:          With respect to the Senatorial elections, polls that are predicting a strong performance by Republican candidates are correct. The Republican Party will control the Senate with 52 seats.

TL Realist:           What about the House? Will the Republican Party make a clean sweep of Congress?
Cassandra:          No, Mr. Realist. Voters in 2024 are sensitive to the risks of vesting power in a single Political Party. The Democrats will regain a House majority with 221 seats.

TL Realist:           So Congress will be divided, Cassandra, which will make it virtually impossible for either a President Harris or a President Trump to enact his/her agenda. That is TLR‘s optimal outcome since a divided Congress fosters dialogue and compromise, an essential ingredient for successful democracy. Nevertheless, if the next President is Candidate Trump, the Republican Party’s Senate majority will vest in him the ability to freely make government appointments and select judges, and if the next President is Candidate Harris, the Democratic Party’s House majority will give her autonomy in drafting (though not in enacting) tax legislation. Neither outcome is ideal, but each beats the alternative of overly-concentrated power.
Cassandra:          While what you say is correct, Mr. Realist, America’s Constitution means that a President nevertheless has the ability to exercise almost limitless power effectively impose her/his will on all facets of American life. He/she controls foreign policy, decides whether and where to spend monies budgeted by Congress, and manages all of America’s executive and regulatory functions.

TL Realist:           Which provides us with a neat segue into your prediction of who will be America’s next President. Who will it be, Cassandra?
Cassandra:          America remains electorally divided, Mr. Realist. The outcome will depend on each Party’s ability to get out the vote in swing states.

TL Realist:           Does that mean that the Candidates’ stated policy convictions and their electioneering won’t make a difference, Cassandra? For example, Candidate Trump has engaged in a straightforward vote-buying strategy, his only apparent conviction being that he should be President.
Cassandra (laughing):    While what you say is true, Mr. Realist, Mr. Trump’s antics do not appear to be adversely affecting his popularity with his constituents.

TL Realist:           What is also true, Cassandra, is that Candidate Harris’s convictions remain unclear. Who is she? What does she truly believe in? Both are difficult to understand since the focus of her campaign has been on generalized policy prescriptions.
Cassandra:          The decision for voters, Mr. Realist, will not be made on policy or sincerity. It will be made on whether voters prefer the devil they know in Mr. Trump or the politician they don’t know but like in Ms. Harris.

TL Realist:           Which one will they choose, Cassandra?
Cassandra:          As I said earlier, Mr. Realist, the outcome will depend on each Party’s ability to get out the swing-state vote, which means that the outcome will be driven by events specific to November 5th, including weather conditions, campaign surprises, geopolitical twists (including those engineered by America’s enemies), etc.

TL Realist:           So, who will it be, Cassandra, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?
Cassandra:          The outcome will not be close, Mr. Realist. The next President will receive more than sufficient electoral votes. That Candidate is X!X@X#X$X%X^X&X* [ED NOTE: Cassandra’s prediction has been redacted at the insistence of the Greek god Apollo].

TLR Index

Prior TLR commentaries can be found here.

Finally (from a good friend)

 

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