29 Dec Comment to “What Will 2025 Bring – Part 1”

Dear Mr Realist:

I should probably await Part 2 before commenting, but I can’t help myself….

Count me as being firmly in the pessimistic camp. I think President-elect Trump has been extremely clear in his pronouncements as to what he will do on day one AND his nominees are proof that he is serious about implementing these this time around. Given that he has control of Congress and the courts (albeit limited in the house), I believe he will succeed in many of his actions, even if they are delayed in the courts with the results as bad as your pessimistic orations suggest.

Further, I think we can time this one…again. President-elect Trump has told us exactly what he will do AND when he will do it: on Day One. As such, on January 21st, I think we will get 100-500 executive orders. These orders will cause havoc in global markets but we won’t see a free fall just yet.  Few REALLY believe that he will be as radical in deeds as in rhetoric…but I do.

I just don’t see how consumer demand can continue deep into 2025…, we are literally the only country that is growing with any significance and with President Trump, we are about to deliver a massive hit to the US (nay, global) economy via his policies. Making his previous tax cuts permanent will help the richest of individuals with little “trickle down” impact.  Corporations will gain but they need demand (and low interest rates and staff) to grow. Not going to happen.

AI will eventually kick in big time (the “Information Revolution” per Zakaria) but not before we have a populistic rebellion in the opposite direction to Trumpism….. I just finished Fareed Zakaria’s book (“Age of Revolutions”) and strongly agree with his thesis in this regard. While he suggests a “thread the needle” path that avoids a serious [hot] revolution, the odds (15/16) are seriously against this path.

The sugar high in stocks will probably continue for a few weeks as folks digest his inauguration speech. We need a good crisis to break the grip of authoritarianism that is creeping across the globe. I hope it is not a long war (cold or hot), but I don’t see how we escape further confrontations with dictatorial regimes, whether criminal, democratic and autocratic.

There, I have said it on the record. Agree or disagree?  No equivocation(s) please!

A devoted reader.