
01 Feb Peace Through Strength – the 21st Century Model
“America has a new-yet-old model of ‘Peace Through Strength.’” – The Lonely Realist
Trump 1.0 foreign policy featured 1930s-style isolationism. Trump 2.0 foreign policy portends 18th Century-style imperialism. Hemispheric Manifest Destiny anyone?
As TLR first addressed in 2019’s “Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick,” 20th Century America successfully employed Ronald Reagan’s “Peace Through Strength,” a globalist foreign policy that pressured other nations to conduct their affairs under an America-led world order. The world’s democracies willingly participated in Pax Americana, standing behind American Presidents’ Big Stick diplomacy, defined by Teddy Roosevelt as “the exercise of intelligent forethought and of decisive action sufficiently far in advance of any likely crisis.” Presidents Reagan, Bush I and Bush II brazenly displayed that Big Stick…, yet spoke softly. Enemies and allies alike were careful listeners.
The world’s perception of America’s commitment as an ally and globalist changed under President Obama after he failed to take action against Russia’s eastern European incursions and Syria’s use of chemical weapons. America had spoken loudly and, when its words were ignored, did nothing. Its enemies got the message. Bashar al-Assad (in Syria), Vladimir Putin (in Ukraine), XI Jinping (in the East and South China Seas and the Taiwan Strait), Kim Jong Un (in North Korea), and Ali Khamenei (throughout the Middle East) thereafter engaged in carte blanche aggression. With the change in American administrations in 2017, however, America’s enemies feared they had a tougher adversary in President Trump, especially with the new President’s amplifications of Reagan tough talk. That turned out to be wrong. Although Trump 1.0 told the U.N General Assembly in September 2017 that “We must reject threats to sovereignty, from the Ukraine to the South China Sea,” and initially reinstated military aid to Ukraine, imposed sanctions on Iran, and pressured NATO allies to increase funding for NATO defense, he thereafter backtracked, reacting indifferently to Russian aggressions and backing off on threats to North Korea. His Iran sanctions and spending pressures on NATO were unsuccessful. Trump 1.0 thereby continued the Obama-era slide into foreign policy disengagement.
Trump 2.0 is different. Although President Trump’s tough talk may sound the same as Trump 1.0, it’s not. Trump 2.0 is not seeking to emulate Ronald Reagan-style Peace Through Strength. Reagan was a globalist. He built strength through alliances. Trump 2.0 is focused on “America First” (that is, America is self-sufficient, can produce everything at home, and is unaffected by whatever happens across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans), adopting a version of imperialist expansionism last seen in the 1890s under President William McKinley. President Trump’s inauguration speech spells out his foreign policy priority: America is “a growing nation” that needs to “increase our wealth, expand our territory.” Trump 2.0 is changing the name of Mount Denali to honor that “great president,” William McKinley, who added Hawaii, Guam, the Philippines and Puerto Rico to American territory (and was a true believer in tariffs). America will actively pursue McKinley-esque policies. Goodbye “Gulf of Mexico.” Hello “Gulf of America.” Goodbye Pax Americana and Reagan-esque Peace Through Strength. Hello America First! And hello to the new territories of Greenland and the Panama Canal. A hearty Canadian welcome to America’s 51st State! Oh, and American policy will now include the right of America’s military to unilaterally intervene with drug traffickers and other “terrorist organizations” throughout the Western Hemisphere.
Imperialism is experiencing a global renaissance. Russia continues empire-building in Eastern Europe, already having taken pieces from Georgia and Ukraine. It has been successfully undermining European Union cohesion as well as EU economic and military capabilities. China long ago absorbed Tibet and more recently acquired Hong Kong. China soon will obtain hegemony over Taiwan. Although Iran’s plans for expansion recently hit a wall, the Middle East remains strategically fraught. Africa is in turmoil. Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua oppose American interests in the Western Hemisphere and North Korea continues to build nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, threatening not only America, but American allies South Korea and Japan. With that as backdrop, it’s no wonder that Greenland is critical to America’s Arctic security, Canada’s vulnerabilities are a cause for American concern, and the Panama Canal’s commercial importance marks it as a strategic hot-spot. What also is clear is that American democracy, freedom of speech, freedom of religion and free enterprise are under assault by the Axis of the Sanctioned and their fellow-travelers. Active military campaigns are being waged against Western democracies. The Axis is employing multi-media to denigrate fact and exalt self-serving propaganda, utilizing economic leverage to subsume America’s global interests, and providing strategic, state-funded scientific, medical and technological support designed to compete against American commerce, business and industry.
Only time will tell whether American interests are best-served by the Trump 2.0 application of “Peace Through Strength” rather than the Reaganesque Pax Americana. Post-WWII American policy relied on worldwide engagement to impose international order. The America First policies of Trump 2.0 reject global obligations and engagement. Yet, 2025 is more similar to 1985 than to 1897. The 21st Century’s businesses and economies are inextricably intertwined. Every thought that flows through the ether, every ship that sails the seas, every satellite in orbit, every business and commercial relationship, every scientific discovery, and every medical breakthrough affects American security and America’s economic health…, and if America doesn’t integrate those global realities into America’s policies and actions, America loses.
One of Trump 2.0’s first acts was to publicly withdraw security protection from four Trump 1.0 advisers, Mike Pompeo, Brian Hook, John Bolton and Mark Milley, each of whom had advised Trump 1.0 with respect to the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani. Iran has put a price on their heads. What would Trump 2.0 do if, as a result of his decision to end their security, one (or more) of the four were to be assassinated? Did the President withdraw protection as a challenge to Iran…, or as retribution? How will his brand of Peace Through Strength address Iranian threats, the Ukraine War, European security, etc.? What of Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria? How will Trump 2.0 balance “Peace Through Strength,” McKinley-esque imperialism and America First isolationism?
Finally (from a good friend)
Happy Groundhog Day!
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