11 May

The Iran War – A TACO Perspective

“Who will history declare to have been the winner of the Iran War, and who the loser?” – The Lonely Realist

TLR has excerpted the following from Sunday’s Rosen Report (TLR recommends the Report, which can be found at ericrosen@substack.com). The Report states the perspective of Eric Rosen and should not be viewed as a TLR subtext or endorsement. It is being quoted below because of its thoughtful consideration of the current status of the Iran War:

“Middle East

I supported the war in Iran, given that Iran declared war with us for over 45 years, killed thousands of Americans, was the largest state sponsor of terrorism, and harmed our allies. I wanted the end of the Iranian regime. Preventing Iran from having nukes is critical, especially given its increased ballistic missile range. In addition to all the hard work to bring about the Abraham Accords, it looked as though we were on the cusp of achieving a prosperous and peaceful Middle East.

In recent weeks, I have written extensively that it was clear Trump was looking for an off-ramp. I feel as though Trump has capitulated, and a Newsmax reporter asked a very good and pointed question of Hegseth: “When did the president decide to capitulate?” You can read it in the link, and needless to say, Hegseth was unhappy with the line of questioning. I feel the reporter asked a very good and direct question backed by facts and history, which outlined Trump’s clear capitulation. Yes, the US and Isreal have inflicted a great deal of pain on Iran and its military. However, we stopped short of my ultimate goals (true regime change, end of nuclear capabilities, and a free Strait of Hormuz). In my view, by not losing, Iran won even though the Iranian military has been decimated and the economy is in shambles. I remain concerned about a one-page deal to end the war and have ZERO faith that the fractured Iranian regime will abide by ANY of the terms. To be clear, I have no relationship with James Rosen [the Newsmax reporter] despite the same name. In a related matter, here is another article, “Trump Blinks First.” Also, Megyn Kelly suggested Trump “lost all credibility” on the conflict, a view that is becoming more widespread.

On Thursday, Iran came out with new rules for the Strait of Hormuz to secure wartime gains. Additionally, Iran has made it clear that they have a right to enrich uranium and will require the complete lifting of sanctions and the release of the country’s frozen assets to move forward. Hostilities began Thursday night again, but Trump made it clear he does not want further escalation. He called the strikes against Iran a “love tap,” and the ceasefire remains in effect. Trump continues to make grand threats if Iran does not sign a deal and he seems to back off every time recently (TACO). Rubio expected an Iranian response on Friday, and I am yet to see anything to suggest that the Iranians have sent the US a proposal.

This is a NYTimes article entitled, “China Sees a ‘Giant With a Limp’ as U.S. Drains Weapons on Iran War.” America’s ability to deter China in a war over Taiwan is weakened, Chinese analysts say, giving Beijing leverage in an upcoming summit with President Trump: