“The Federal Reserve’s determination to reduce inflation by raising interest rates will make for an ever-stronger Dollar. A strong Dollar is good for America.” – The Lonely Realist A celebrated Wall Street maxim is that “Whatever might appear to be obvious is obviously wrong.” What seems...
“Inflation is the dragon that the Federal Reserve must slay. At what cost?” – The Lonely Realist The anticipated recession has arrived. America has suffered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the classic definition of recession (as discussed here). If more evidence were needed, the...
“This week’s Fed Rate Hike and negative GDP report provide recession grist for would-be oracles, but don’t bet-the-farm on alleged experts’ conjectures. No one can predict the future.” – The Lonely Realist Those who assert their ability to predict the future are optimistically representing their guesses...
“How long is forever?” – The Lonely Realist Stein’s Law—named for economist Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Nixon — states that “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”* America’s rising standard of living, ever-increasing GDP, global hegemony, and...
In a letter to TLR on June 27, 2021, the "Delphic Oracle" offered predictions about America's economy, projecting ongoing asset inflation due to the Fed continuing its QE money-printing – which indeed continued – leading to higher stock prices (TINA) – which it did –,...