18 Apr

Iran War Fallout

Posted at 04:00h in Business, Economics, Foreign Policy, General, International Relations, Politics, Society 0 Comments

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“There is and will be further collateral damage from the Iran War.” – The Lonely Realist We are 7 weeks into the Iran War and markets have been soaring. even more so following comments made by President Trump forecasting an imminent end. Although the Strait of...

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09 Apr

Iran War Misconceptions

Posted at 23:26h in Foreign Policy, General, International Relations, Society 0 Comments

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“Three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” – Carl von Clausewitz “Beware the ‘fog of war.’” – The Lonely Realist When asked in 1972 about the impact of the French Revolution, Chinese...

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04 Apr

The Economics of War – Part 3

Posted at 03:31h in Economics, Foreign Policy, General, International Relations, Politics, Society 0 Comments

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“Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.” – The Lonely Realist Today's TLR continues to analyze the potential economic fallout from the Iran War by assessing the consequences of two “what if” possibilities: What if (1) there will not be a negotiated settlement; and...

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26 Mar

There is No Winner

Posted at 21:05h in Foreign Policy, General, International Relations, Society 0 Comments

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“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – attributed to Mark Twain TLR earlier this month addressed three possible outcomes for the Iran War. The first is the one sought by America and its allies: America and Israel pulverize the Iranian Theocracy, the Iranian people take...

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21 Mar

The Economics of War – Part 2

Posted at 12:42h in Economics, Foreign Policy, General, International Relations, Society 0 Comments

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“Wars are messy, their consequences unpredictable.” – The Lonely Realist “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain.” – Jerome Powell (March 18, 2026) History teaches that wars are disruptive. They have unanticipated spillover effects, including by creating interest rate and...

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14 Mar

The Economics of War – Part 1

Posted at 12:29h in Economics, Foreign Policy, General, International Relations, Society 0 Comments

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“It’s about energy.” – The Lonely Realist Today’s TLR is a brief follow-up to this past Thursday’s “The Iran War”: One month ago, writing about whether the US Dollar might surrender its reserve currency status, TLR noted that America and China are in a competition for global...

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