“It’s about ‘Fortress America’…, and much more.” – The Lonely Realist Hypothesis: Both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping understand that the Thucydides Trap would represent a disastrous outcome for each country. President Trump appreciates that a Thucydides outcome would be inevitable should America continue its efforts...
“The Iran War has strengthened the Islamic Republic…, or has it?” – The Lonely Realist President Trump announced on May 23rd that a “PEACE Agreement” with Iran “has been largely negotiated” and that the details would be “announced shortly.” It hasn’t happened (yet?). Although the President...
“Highs and lows of April 2026...
“There is and will be further collateral damage from the Iran War.” – The Lonely Realist We are 7 weeks into the Iran War and markets have been soaring. even more so following comments made by President Trump forecasting an imminent end. Although the Strait of...
“Three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” – Carl von Clausewitz “Beware the ‘fog of war.’” – The Lonely Realist When asked in 1972 about the impact of the French Revolution, Chinese...
“Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.” – The Lonely Realist Today's TLR continues to analyze the potential economic fallout from the Iran War by assessing the consequences of two “what if” possibilities: What if (1) there will not be a negotiated settlement; and...