“What will be the effect of abandoning Pax Americana?” – The Lonely Realist Donald Trump is reorganizing the world order. If you thought that the Trump Revolution would have a profound impact only on America’s domestic institutions, you were wrong. Trump 2.0 intends to effect even...
“The 2025 'Word of the Year' is 'volatility'.” – The Lonely Realist As highlighted in last week’s TLR, America is looking forward to an economically and politically volatile 2025. More extreme volatility can be expected internationally. Although many disagree with Ray Dalio's forecast of geopolitical (and economic)...
“The ‘Permabear interview’ is a challenge to Cassandra’s 2025 predictions.” – The Lonely Realist A year ago, Cassandra predicted that “the Fed will continue to follow an easing path and, although it will use tough-talk to temper over-exuberance, it will not tolerate a recession. With inflation...
“Voters expect change…, and change they will get.” – The Lonely Realist There are any number of ways in which the incoming Trump Administration will disrupt the status quo. Presidential Power. Domestically, Donald Trump will transform Federalism Federal power by greatly expanding the prerogatives of America’s Executive:...
"Despite a focus on cycles, TLR did not foresee the return of antisemitism.” – The Lonely Realist The very first TLR in February 2019 asked “Are we Experiencing a 1937 Redux?” Yes, we were are. The 2010s began another era of accelerating grievance fueled by the...
“What others now are saying is what TLR warned about years ago.” – The Lonely Realist In a recent opinion piece in Bloomberg, noted historian Niall Ferguson emphasized longstanding TLR themes, one of which is “the formation and consolidation of an Axis.” TLR readers witnessed the...