30 Nov Trumpian Disruptions

“Voters expect change…, and change they will get.” – The Lonely Realist

There are any number of ways in which the incoming Trump Administration will disrupt the status quo.

Presidential Power. Domestically, Donald Trump will transform Federalism Federal power by greatly expanding the prerogatives of America’s Executive: He will impose tariffs on foreign goods in ways reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs of the 1930s (Congress having delegated “national security” authority to the President), unilaterally “suspend the entry” of various categories of immigrants and slow the visa approval process for others (as he did in his first term), reinstitute the spoils system by sidelining (or firing) current government employees and replacing them with supporters, friends and relatives, fulfill his campaign promise to unprecedentedly pardon those convicted of felonies for the January 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol, award to allies patronage grants under the Biden Administration’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (~$294 billion) and the Inflation Reduction Act (up to $500 billion), and eliminate Executive Branch enforcement and financial support for Obama- and Biden-era regulations, programs and supporters…, fulfilling his pledge to make every effort to dismantle the Deep State. Although Congress is unlikely to enact supportive legislation, it will not object; the courts, however, may.

Deep State. The effect will be American Balkanization as power (and Federal financial support) devolves from the Federal government to the States, what some refer to as “The Death of Federalism.” Evidence of that devolutionary trend can be found in the Federal government’s turnaround on abortion rights. That and similar reversals will gain speed and momentum. The Education Department no longer will have sufficient staff to ensure equal access to education, funding for children with disabilities, Pell Grants, work assistance, etc. It already has the smallest staff of any Federal agency with a 2024 budget of $238 billion compared to $637 billion in 2022. The Department of Health and Human Services, the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will reduce the Federal government’s oversight of health care and cut the government’s financial obligations, expedite drug approval processes and, in the words of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., “make America healthy again” (MAHA), doing so at lowered cost (though with more, not less, government intervention). Etc.

The Death of Taxes. America’s system of taxation will undergo momentous changes…, and not solely because President Trump will fulfill his campaign promises by extending and expanding 2017 tax cuts. America’s tax base is shrinking because tax shelters are increasingly reducing the amount of tax paid by America’s highest earners. Those tax shelters now are being marketed to the general public and can be expected to radically reduce reported income taxes. Unless there are increases in the IRS budget to finance enhanced enforcement – anathema to the incoming Trump Administration –, or radical reforms soon are adopted with respect to America’s tax system (as TLR has long advocated), deficits and debt will accelerate at rates unanticipated and un-forecasted by analysts and economists.

European Disunion. From a foreign policy perspective, the Trump Administration will “set Europe free” by removing America’s defense guarantees that for the past 80 years have shielded European governments and economies from foreign threats and created a Pax Americana that ensured European freedoms. Threats from Russia and its allies will be a European problem. If Europe wants peace, European nations will be compelled to budget for war. Doing so will make continental Europe poorer and a more dangerous place to live and work. Membership in the EU and NATO will lose a great deal of its attractiveness. The end of global American hegemony indeed will be a cause for European disruption trauma concern. Moreover, without the Federalization of the European Union (a sought-after hope that lacks the necessary traction), Europe will find itself Balkanized in the worst possible ways. Each European country soon will have to decide which global power to align with. Not only Russia’s cheap and plentiful oil and gas but its militarized economy will make it an attractive alternative, and not only for Putin apologists Hungary, Georgia, Serbia and Austria. Moreover, European trade with China will increase, and do so at America’s expense as tariffs become cost determinative. Which global champion will a majority of European countries favor?

The Greenland Protectorate. Although in his first term President Trump suggested that America buy Greenland from Denmark, the Trump Administration will pro-actively occupy “protect” Greenland from imagined Russian and Chinese aggressions. America has had its eye on Greenland since 1867, having made several offers to shield Greenland under an American umbrella, President Truman in 1946 offering to purchase it. Denmark has consistently refused and Rasmus Jarlov, a member of the Danish parliament, recently noted that “there is no way we would approve [America’s purchase of] Greenland. Nice fantasy but forget it.” And forgetting about purchasing Greenland is precisely what President Trump will do – he instead will make Greenland an American protectorate. Greenland today is a strategic asset that cannot provide for its own defense and cannot be defended by Denmark. The Trump Administration accordingly will send American “military advisers” to ensure the sovereignty independence strategic importance safeguard the island and its vast resources from threatened potential Russian and Chinese incursions in the strategically important Arctic region. America will do so unilaterally if necessary in an act that will offset China’s inevitable annexation of Taiwan, one that an isolationist Trump Administration will not militarily challenge.

Skynet and Interstellar. Even greater disruptions await with respect to the Trump Administration’s approach to AI and climate change. Stay tuned!

Finally (from a good friend)