“Has the Trump Administration engineered a recession?” – The Lonely Realist President Trump is waging all-out war on the Federal bureaucracy, on America’s trade partners, and on America’s NATO allies. The execution of Trump 2.0 policies has created uncertainties that make business planning hazardous, and America’s...
“What do 21st Century Conservatives and Liberals actually believe in?” – The Lonely Realist As TLR has noted, modern American political conservatism is founded on four “right wing” principles: fiscal restraint, furthering traditional American values, pursuing a strong national defense, and incentivizing capitalist Darwinism. The core...
“Is duck-and-cover the safest course for the combination of Trump 2.0 and DeepSeek?” – The Lonely Realist For those who scoffed at the possibility of a second American revolution, welcome to Trump 2.0. For those who disbelieved Candidate Trump’s promises, welcome to sudden, radical changes to...
“The 2025 'Word of the Year' is 'volatility'.” – The Lonely Realist As highlighted in last week’s TLR, America is looking forward to an economically and politically volatile 2025. More extreme volatility can be expected internationally. Although many disagree with Ray Dalio's forecast of geopolitical (and economic)...
“2024 was a volatile year. What are the domestic prospects for 2025?” – The Lonely Realist The Optimists: Perhaps Cassandra will be right: “The Fed will continue to cut interest rates well into 2025, driving GDP and stock market prices higher. America’s corporations have seen their...
“Like a broken clock, permabears are right once every cycle.” – Cassandra Last week’s TLR provided a compilation of permabear pretexts that led one reader to highlight an interview from Moneywise in which Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer of Universa Investments, insisted that the “worst market...